GBP/USD – Trading the UK manufacturing PMI report

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
Dollar selling continued on Monday amid holiday thinned trading. GBP/USD             saw a bullish break from a larger falling trend line on the daily chart , but has not been able to extend gains in Asia today.

Daily Chart
Previous day’s close of 1.4672 was just above falling trend line level, which now stands breached. The trend line level; now a support; currently stands at 1.4650 levels.

Eyes UK PMI release

UK manufacturing PMI for April is likely to show the pace of expansion in the activity slightly improved. The Confederation of British Industry ( CBI             ) data released on 25th April showed the orders balance improved to -11% in April from -14% in March. Manufacturers managed to push up their production in three months to April and are optimistic that domestic and overseas demand will improve.

It is worth noting that GBP/USD             had welcomed a slight improvement in April orders balance showed by CBI             data released last week. Hence, it would take a better-than-expected UK services PMI (expected 51.2, previous 51.00) report to push the British Pound higher. On the other hand, a weaker PMI figure could trigger a correction in the pair.

On the hourly chart, the rising trend line is still intact and hence a strong PMI figure could help the pair chew through offers around 1.47 levels.

Hourly chart Formation – Rising trend line

Support – 1.4650, 1.4619-1.4617, 1.4578
Resistance – 1.47, 1.4740, 1.48

  • Cable’s bullish break from the falling trend line on daily chart has left the doors open for further rise in the pair, although daily RSI is nearing overbought territory, while hourly RSI is diverging from the price rise.
  • Thus, a corrective move to 1.4617 cannot be ruled out if prices breach support at 1.4650. A break below 1.4617 would expose 1.4578 levels.
  • On the other hand, a rebound from 1.4650 followed by a rise above 1.47 could add credence to the bullish break seen on Monday and expose 1.4740-1.48 levels

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