GBPUSD - The Exception

FX:GBPUSD   British Pound / U.S. Dollar
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Greetings Fellow Traders -

In an important note on a EURUSD             commentary I mentioned that GBPUSD             was the exception to what I am seeing as bullish pairs actually indicating bullish trend potential for XXX/USD pairs.

GBPUSD             was incredibly bearish the last few months/weeks - an Incredible sell off - followed by another strong sell off, but shorter lived. Since then we've retraced quite a bit breaking the bearish swing strength and actually reinforcing that break. The market has sculpted us what appears to be a potential Head and Shoulders reversal pattern. How will we know we're on the right track? First we're going to see a break of the 1.4450 area on the daily scale, likely we'll see short term moves higher but there is a resistance zone near 1.46 that I've outlined already. The market should then look to fall back on what was broken, consolidating before it pushes higher - this would be a retest of that neck line. Last but not least the measured objective is roughly 700 pips from the moment of lift off - which puts us around an impressive 1.51000 figure.

Keep in mind this is on the daily scale and I know many of you will be paying close attention to the 'Brexit' Referendum in June - will this major news release help aid this early analysis or destroy it - keep an eye on the price action to find out. We've got about 50 candles to go, how fast or slow they move will be up to the market itself.

For now though - we look for the break of 1.4450 to trade into the 1.45-1.46 region.

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