We have this pair trading within a 2,500 pip monthly range with no real direction shown except sideways.
However, this period of consolidation comes after a massive drop in the currency's value from 2007 to 2009 from 2.1 to 1.35.
The 1.41 handle showing to be the most resilient with price reacting very vigorously every time it reaches this level. the pair began respecting a counter , putting in Lower Highs but failing to make Higher Highs, instead was capped by the monthly range resistance, then in Feb 2013 printed a fake break of this CTL and then a further fake break of the range resistance capped by a second touch of the Monthly Trend-line then July 2013 began the long Bear run cleaning out the CTL and producing the continuation of another leg down of the fibonacci CD leg. Taking the flagpole height and copying on to the breakout of the CTL we have it lining up with a -61.8 extension perfectly, in confluence with range support.
a Clean break and close below the 1.40 round number handle could se us safe break the range with further targets being 1.15 & 0.90 round numbers