Gold, like silver and all commodities in general, are in a secular bull market. They will remain so until there is enough action from the Federal Reserve central bank to arrest money creation and thus cause debt deflation. Since this has only happened twice in the Fed's history (early 1930's and 1980's) and with tremendous economic pain, it is extremely doubtful this will happen again. Of course, I could be wrong. The interest rate run up and subsequent great recession during the last decade was NOT enough to make it a third time. That was rather a dis inflationary (a reduction in the inflation rate) crash, which was nowhere near what was required to end the secular commodities bull market.
In any secular (very long term) market you will have cyclical bulls and bears contained within the secular trend. The cyclical top was attained in the third quarter of 2011 where a cyclical bear ensued. This likely ended with the bottom put in December 2015. The second trend line drawn above the first is likely to hold, as this not too far below where the break even price is to mine it. You will note that silver has a similar all in cash cost of mining scenario as outlined in my analysis of that metal. There exists the possibility another financial crisis could send the price of gold temporarily below the top trend line. If that is to be the case, there may be a hard bounce off the original secular trend line as the Fed reinflates.
In any secular (very long term) market you will have cyclical bulls and bears contained within the secular trend. The cyclical top was attained in the third quarter of 2011 where a cyclical bear ensued. This likely ended with the bottom put in December 2015. The second trend line drawn above the first is likely to hold, as this not too far below where the break even price is to mine it. You will note that silver has a similar all in cash cost of mining scenario as outlined in my analysis of that metal. There exists the possibility another financial crisis could send the price of gold temporarily below the top trend line. If that is to be the case, there may be a hard bounce off the original secular trend line as the Fed reinflates.
