twelve012

Gold Price Prediction: short-term downleg expected to 1812.00

COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
How did Gold price perform yesterday?

The precious metal formed a spinning top. The intra-day break below the hesitative candle allowed the upper boundary of a triangle to be formed.

TA wise, what can we expect from Gold today?

Following its bounce off the lows from 7 January at 1781.30, the upleg within the triangle is likely to face a pause towards the support confluence at 1812.00, formed by the lower formation boundary and the 50% retracement.

Alternatively, a surpass of the upper triangle boundary will invalidate the pause scenario. The bulls would then open an immediate rise to 1854.20, the high from 25 January.

FA wise, what can drive the price to the anticipated targets?

The anticipated downleg to 1812.00 is favoured by the latest US year-on-year CPI reading that reached 7.5% in January, the highest since 1982. The possibility of a 50-bps rate hike during the Fed meeting in March is raised substantially. Some US banks call for seven rate hikes in 2022 alone.

However, the downside is likely to be limited by gold’s status an inflation hedge and a safe-haven asset amid the developing tensions between the world powers over Ukraine.
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