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The Direction Of Gold Is UP Temporarily

COMEX:GC1!   Gold Futures
The direction of GC futures is UP

There is the overbought (OB) trend noise balance (TNB) indicator on 1D-1W to confirm this
There is a 1M BUY weakness ( WK ) indicator to confirm short/medium term

There are no 'active' indicators to conflict this

There are 'inactive' indicators to conflict this, the 1Q SSTO SELL signal

There are warning signs of the 2D 6UP which filled 50% so it made an attempt to fill and not much more can be expected although typically 33.3% (1844.1) is reached for more bullish potential.

There are 'inactive' warnings signs 1Y RSI OB, 1Y 12UP.

Be aware of the cost of any potential SL and the affect of that on the account. In this scenario CMP 1889, 1W LOW SL 1855, 1 MGC contract $10.00 = 1 'point', cost = $340, In the book, Trading For A Living - a trade should not risk more than 2% of the account, account size = $340 / 0.02 = $17,000 minimum.

The narrative of GC futures is exhausting due to the record 12 green 1Y closes in a row from 2001 to 2012. This caused the 1Y RSI to reach 90 in 2012. When the RSI produced a SELL signal by trading below 70, it immediately caused a crash to the 9 SMA at 1167.7 the following year. Now that the 1Y RSI has again closed above 70 last year and now sits at 75, there is a concern price will fall to the 9 SMA if it trades below 70 again. Because this is a long-term idea, I consider it 'inactive' and I only trade in the direction the daily charts are moving in. For that reason, I will consider buying between the 1D 18 SMA and the 2D 18 SMA support zone as confirmed by the OB TNB indicator. The price is already at the top of the support zone so buying is reasonable but because the support zone is wide, the SL is difficult to place. I do have 2 potential SL to use which I forgot to label on the chart. 1 would be the up trend line beginning 3/31 and the other would be the 1W LOW. Unfortunately these both fall above the support of 2D 18 SMA . Not only that, but there is the 2D 6UP 33.3% below that support zone . Like I said, the techincals of GC are an exhausting mess. I would wait for more short-term confirmations, better 1D BB conditions (at least 1XP rather than 1CP), wait for the FED interest rate decision next week.
Comment: The more I am looking at GC, I am thinking that the 2D 6UP is certainly weighing on the market. It is so considerable that I would upgrade it from a warning to a conflict. Because of that 1 conflict, I would like to close the trade with small profit by LMT to avoid slippage in a SCLP, which was the point of the trade anyway, to SCLP due to the 1D 1CP BB condition, and wait for the daily direction to confirm a direction DN. I think 0% will be filled, 1808.4. At that point, it will be unknown whether the daily direction will be UP or DN. I will have to update when the daily direction turns down, or if a reliable short-term confirmation appears.
Comment: I am happy to have listened to the 1D 1CP indicator suggesting SCLP by closing out of the trade. Now gold is lower in the support zone. It is possible the support zone will hold without filling the 2D 6UP but it is impossible to know from here. I would need to see some substantial short-term confirmation. The daily direction hasn't changed so SELL is not yet a consideration. This is a waiting game as it typically is before FED events. Those who can't WAIT beforehand take trades with 50-50 odds and they may get it right but if you are always trading 50-50 odds it won't work out long term so I am happy to patiently avoid GC.
Comment: Look at that. 2D 6UP 0% was filled at 1808.4. Unfortunately the daily direction is now down with the 1D SSTO close below 20. We need to close the 1D SSTO above 20 before taking trades in the UP direction. Otherwise, GC is below the support between 2D and 3D. It needs to hold support by trading over 1833.3, the 3D 18 SMA. The good news is that there is not more bearish targets to reach in this trend.

Comments

not temporay lol... R.I.P $SPX .
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