My Thoughts on Gold's Direction

GOLD has been on a rocket ship lately, and our beloved gold bugs are getting excited (as am I). However, we have to remember that markets never go up in a straight line, shaking out many investors on the way to all time highs.

On the fibs we are approaching the 0.618 level. This is a key level around $1,500. I believe we will see quite the retracement from here back to the underlying trend line OR support at the $1,380 level.

If you've seen some of my content before, you'll notice that I've called for as low as $750-800 gold. I definitely did not expect a run past $1,380 resistance. But, $800 gold is NOT out of the question. I do believe the probability is a bit lower now.

Also I do believe retesting $1,050 is still possible as well.

Though I believe a down trend continuation is not out of the picture, I do not have a chart analysis on this yet. I would need price action to develop further. I have only provided my best guess of Gold's route if this is indeed a long term up trend.

My probabilities:
40% new ATH
40% retest the low of $1,050
20% of hitting lows of $750-800

LinkTree

Comment:

For whatever reason, I did not include the overhead resistance of gold's current uptrending channel. If you look at this screen shot, it really completes the whole picture.

The gold price is facing:
overhead resistance from its current channel
Overhead resistance from ATH
Resistance from 0.618 retracement from ATH

I believe we will touch the bottom of our channel by next winter, and retest our overhead resistance from the ATH in 2022. At this point, the market with either decide if an uptrend will continue, or if we will experience another greater correction down to $1,250 or even $1,000.

Only time will tell!

Comment:

How could I forget? Here's an update on the weekly RSI.
It broke down below the trendline I drew back when I came out with this analysis.

Cheers.