standard 50% retracement after 5 waves up. This should be a big winner.
Comment: Not so text book after all. I count 5 waves down from the recent high around 22.88 and the fib extensions say it should be done. It is likely a C wave which is 5 waves but often C waves are lower than the A waves (but don't have to be) so its possible to get a bit of an overthrow under the trendline to shake the rest of the bulls out. I like this as an entry and have added this morning.
Comment: gold bottomed this morning, assuming gdx bottom is in as well
Comment: final add here, i had 21.57 GDX and 1217 gold as a potential bottom, strongly below those levels and this trade is wrong and will be closed.
Comment: banks are just blowing out the weak players on low volume, real bond yields are down this morning, its a gift
Comment: the doulbe zig zag correction in gold is at its tail end, we have RSI divergence on the latest minor new low which counts well as a 5th of the final Y wave. A very small new low is possible but its starting to look like the bottom is in now.
Comment: thats the little bit lower i was expecting, looks like gold has dropped enough
Comment: wrong below 20.89
Comment: very large rally could be setting up here, we have either a 1,2,1,2,1,2 count in play or a double zig zag correction ending at Y, above this mornings high gold will likely rally for days and weeks to come...perhaps the fed is done raising rates for now or something, i'm personally expecting a huge reversal today.
Comment: along with gold, expecting the rally to continue, but watch for a potential pull back if this rally remains ABC
Comment: The bears were telling me gold's recent climb from the lows was only a 3rd wave bounce, the labelling for it was always forced and ugly. C would have a truncation and look awkward. I propose a leading diagonal in the works instead for wave i up, if correct we should rally from here in a iiird wave
Comment: my idea blue, bears black
Comment: my idea confirmed, leading diagonal confirmed, third wave up in progress, enjoy
Comment: Everyone seemed so bearish a few days ago. still a slim chance for the bears if this move from the lows was ABC, i may take some or all profits at 22.2 and look to re-enter 21.8 area with a stop around there in case it moves strongly lower, i'm still bullish and expect prices to get to the 25 area in the coming weeks
Comment: took partial profits at 22.10, expecting a pull back around here based on price action and gold is approaching 1240 so it makes sense
Comment: expecting a pull back here as per profit taking which was a day too early, ah well
Comment: the wedge is a bit forced looking on GDX but i'd target the .382 for an aggressive entry and exit below the wedge origin
Comment: about to take all profits, expecting a pull back next week
Comment: almost 3 waves down complete, going long again around 22.08, shallow correction possible, will close up on any sign of further weakness


took profits at 22.30ish, currently the situation is unclear and sitting on the sidelines for now
The chart itself is still bullish, higher lows and higher highs. The bears believe there is at least on major leg lower to a new low below 20.89 and that the recent swing high was a 4th wave. The bears point to the 3 wave structure of this possible 4th wave. The move today certainly got the bears excited and they may be right. However, as it stands at the moment, I can count an ABC structure down. If so, it is possible we have a ,, i, ii, wave count setting up and we have finished ii. This would be bullish. If however we move slightly up to or below 21.70 and then dip to a new low on the day, I will concede to the bears and look to exit on any 50% retracement of the move from the top to whatever that low will be. If we move up above 21.70, significantly, I will look forward to a third of a third wave and our patience will be vastly rewarded. For now, neutral and watching.
cjwaves cjwaves
@cjwaves, just ignore all the 'old labels' on top of the chart
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