FX:GER30   DAX Index
4133 14 79
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Comment: China spooked markets quite a bit over the summer and now we see it again, pointing to weakness in the Chinese manufacturing sector.
Asian markets sold off as investigations into two major Chinese brokerages and a drop in Chinese industrial profits sent the Shanghai Composite Index down 5.5%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index lost 1.8%, while Japan's Nikkei Stock Average fell 0.3%.
Still, the reaction in markets outside China was relatively modest, particularly compared with some of the massive stock swings seen in August as Chinese shares tumbled.
Analysts said the weakness is China's economy is now well known, while the crackdown on brokerages has few direct implications for stocks in Europe and the U.S.
This week has seen sharp swings for European bourses. A selloff sparked by mounting geopolitical tensions gave way to gains as investors looked forward to further easing of monetary policy from the European Central Bank at its meeting on December 3.
Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve's plans for interest rates continue to steer markets. "While the run-up to the Fed's interest rate-setting meeting in mid-December could see more volatility in share markets, it's starting to look like investors are becoming less worried about it and that a Fed hike will actually be a vote of confidence in the U.S. economy.
Next week, investors could get more clues as to the Fed's plans, with the release of the monthly payrolls report and congressional testimony from Chairwoman Janet Yellen.
But especially next week, it will be crucial intervention of President Mario Draghi: "It will still be enough his rhetoric, or will use an iron fist? ...wait and see.....
make a new dax analysis please ! :)
Hello do you think the model is still valid ? The DAX just touched the 10577 level right now...
thank you,
Hello everybody !
Is there a very strong correlation between the DAX and the EURUSD pair ?
It seems to me that when the currency pair goes up, the german index retraces down, and viceversa...
If I am right, when will the correlation end? or how do I know when it has ended?
Hello SignalSwiss, I am on a short entry at 11425.3! So far so good. I can see the index touched at least twice the resistance at 11435 and also a few times a key support level 11344, which finds hard to break.
How should I protect my gains for tomorrow's ECB speech, also considering that part of this profit will be dedicated to a new monthly subscription to your analysis website ? : )
Hi, SIgnalSwiss. I can predict Shanghai composite index dropping before it happens. Please look at my new analysis about it. It has a correlation time lagging from Dax and DXY. USdollar is leading all stocks markets now. From my view DAX will breakout to new highs after some bear traps. So after the DAX breaking and EURUSD droping because they are leading Shanghai composite index I will buy it at the right shoulder which is now forming. With all my respect.
+1 Reply
Victor.Y.F Victor.Y.F
China markets dropping in June has a 3 months time lagging from DAX's dropping in March. EURO bottomed in March too and it has instant correlations with DXY or USdollar. Now the lagging time has been narrowed but it's still there.
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~10937 is critical
+1 Reply
Victor.Y.F jangseohee
I agree with you about DAX. Commodities are breaking down.
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If you use the high on 9/9 the double bottom projection would be around 11700. Around 11650 you have a strong resistance for Fibonacci. I agree with your idea but I would move the targets about 100 points higher.
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