FX:GER30   DAX index of German listed shares
282 4 3
There is a big divergence in RSI and the Dax             tried many times to climb above 10100 but failed.

The 4h candle is very bearish as well.

I am short now from 9920 with a larger SL @ 10123.
Due to the rallye in Dow Jones and the bearish daily candle in Brent Oil             I expect a larger downmove to come.

My targets are: 9300, 9000, 8600 and max. 7900.
Afterwards I expect a larger rallye to come.

Good Trades
Comment: The DAX short from 9920 worked very well this morning. As you can see the DAX turned nearly exacty before it reached the "shortzone".
I absolutely agree with you but I believe that we will have a big plus at the end of the year depending on the actions of FED and ECB.
At the moment the market is pricing a recession because Mario Draghi said "he came to an end and even the FED talks about increasing interest rates. I believe that if the market shows weakness the FED will stop raising interest rates and the ECB will lower the interest rate again.
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that is where oil will come into play for 2017 onwards. the sustained recovery in oil prices will put a foot in their mouth. currently at 30+ inflation is already quite high. my target for oil is in the region of 70-80.
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snapshot
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totally agree with your views. the next leg down will be fierce, to catch the current longs during the sell in may and go away scenario. After which we will have a super rally to end the year flat to slightly positive. My guess is that we will test rsi14 (30) on the monthly chart. That should also coincide with rsi14 (20) on weekly chart. rebound target will be rsi14 (70) on weekly chart. we are already in a bear market.
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