j33per

Big down move ahead?

FX:GER30   DAX Index
The DAX high of 13'601 came down to 10'281 (3'320 pips). Then it went up to11'390 , retraced just off 50% which likely means that it will go up to 11'940 or thereabouts. That level also happens to be 50% retracement of the down from 13'601 to 10'281 which leads me to think that we can expect a strong fall to 8'620 or thereabouts.

Those that have followed my previous plan will have read that since the year 2000, when a month candle closes below the 50 EMA it also touched the 200 EMA (currently sat at 7'461).

Always trade your own plan and carefully watch price action.
Trade active: Two gaps to close...
Trade active: Standard Bearish Divergence on Daily Chart. Let's see whether this plays out!
Trade active: In the same way that I was convinced that DAX needed to go down to the 11'300 area, in the same way am I convinced it needs to go towards 11'940 before the big down. Let's see.
Comment: Considering all major indexes, the current level of the DAX is such that it's hard to make a call for a long or a short. I am biased towards a long to the 11'940 level. Providing DAX is showing a HH in price and a LH in RSI, DAX will be on its way down again towards 8'800... So, essentially I am sticking to my original plan first published on March 2nd....

Comment: When the facts change, be prepared to change your mind!

The trend line on the daily chart's RSI has broken upwards. Unless DAX retraces considerably prior to reaching 11'940, don't just short there! Keep watching price action and don't short unless there is clear indication. Based on the strength of the uptrend from 11'300 please think twice before shorting!

Comment: Shown a bit clearer here...
Comment: Crunch day today with NFP...
DAX is at the top of the trend channel. The RSI trendline is breached and the MACD still wide open and on the up. The question is whether DAX is going to respect the price trend channel or the RSI and MACD indicators.
Price doesn't go up or down in a straight line... Also, there appears to be divergence between fundamentals and technicals. Impossible to make a definite call right now but think the chance of going up > than for it going down. DAX does need a bit of a breather though...

Comment: DAX overshot my 11’940 prediction by nearly 100 pips and just north of the 50% retracement level and is struggling to contain itself in the channel which could be identified as a bear flag.

Ten consecutive green days doesn’t occur very often. DAX needs a breather and as always there’s a 70% chance of DAX reaching the Previous Week’s Midway point at 11’813.5. On the 4H chart we also see some price/RSI Standard Bearish Divergence but not yet on the MACD. If we had that, it would have been a no brainer.

Therefore I expect DAX to go down this coming week where my targets are 11’700ish and 11’500.

Wishing you every success!

Comment: Looks like DAX wants to close the gap of October 8th, 2018 and I expect a breather towards 11'730 or so... No evidence yet of any bearish signs.
Comment: Despite not such good data out of Germany, DAX has been very bullish. This leads me to think that a new SHS is in play.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/201...

Comment: Since DAX has broken the 50% Fib level, the only hope for bears is that DAX is going to respect the 61.8% Fib level, or better still; my orange trend line. I had fully expected it to turn around at 50% also given the poor data out of Germany. Although the SPX and US30 are showing signs of Standard Bearish Divergence, both still seem to be bullish pulling DAX up with them and to predict the top is now nigh impossible.
At the same time, DAX will need a breather and hopefully this arrives before my stop loss is triggered at 12'400.
Comment: DAX went beyond the 50% retracement mark and has already hit 61.8%. My SL is set at 12'400. Although there is hidden bearish divergence visible on the week chart, I wouldn't short on the basis of that. If you're in a long, I'd stay in it until there's clear standard bearish divergence and that may be a few days off yet.
Comment: The 4H candles certainly point to a rejection of prices higher than 12'380 for the time being.Let's see what the next three days are going to do.
Comment: Anything is possible but the question is what's probable... A proper turnaround would likely have to be indicated by clear daily bearish divergence which we haven't had so far. Also today is NFP day, making things even more difficult to predict.
As always, trade your own plan and never take anyone else's as gospel!
Trade closed: stop reached: Having passed the 61.8 retracement level, DAX is now more likely to go up further to reach a new high than a major correction down.
hope the melt down will be now. thanks for sharing and goodluck.
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Divergences on VIX, DVIX and SPX... generally a sign of a correction.


No divergence on the daily chart for DAX, US30 and JP225USD


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DAX cash market gaps shown here... Please be aware that there is a gap sitting close by and may get closed first before making its way down again...

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anyoneg j33per
@j33per, thx
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thx for info i will consider more
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Friday’s candle makes me thing than the trend reversal will start on Monday.
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j33per Manix237
@Manix237, at some stage this week, I expect DAX to come down to 11'430 area followed by a further up move...
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