Here is my original "Gold" chart I made 5 months ago. The price of my lower entry arrow has been reached, plus the time window has been reached, which is why I publish this reminder. This chart is posted as neutral, because there is not yet enough price movement to the upside to fully confirm this entry signal, plus the time window has just started. So there could be one more dip to the downside before the actual larger rally starts later in 2017.
Ideas supporting Gold as safe haven investment in 2017 and beyond:
The new US president sleeps only 3-4 hours per night according to his butler and according to his 2004 book "Trump: Think Like a Billionaire". This lack of sleep might cause chronic sleep deprivation, with symptoms including sudden mood swings and emotional imbalance. That could lead to more stock market in the future, which would benefit safe haven assets like "Gold".
Trump has appointed more military generals in his cabinet than any president since World War II. This might lead to a foreign policy that is less inspired by civilian ideas and more heavily dependent on U.S. military.
In addition the political risks around the world are increasing, as measured by the “Economic Policy Uncertainty” ( EPU ) index, which scans the entire spectrum of news sources each day for words indicating worry, doubt, and contingency about policy direction. This index has negative correlation with equity prices and a high positive correlation with stock market . In most economies around the world, the EPU index is currently surging. A GDP-weighted average of the EPU indexes from 17 countries has recently hit unprecedented heights—higher than 9/11, Gulf War II, the GFC, or the Euro-Crisis of 2011.
Will Policy Uncertainty Markets? The “Economic Policy Uncertainty” ( EPU ) index
Trump's butler for almost 30 years
Trump's potential chronic sleep deprivation
Trump's admiration of generals
Answer: I started the time window at January 2017, because seasonally each end of December to early January the gold price typically starts to rise more often than in other months, based on historic statistics - and as we know now it happened again this year. Usually the best time to sell is February based also on seasonal statistics, which is why I made this time window to buy so long. Because I expect gold prices to fall again until at least Summer 2017, before a very large rally could start once the best seasonal cycle for US stock markets ends (around summer each year). I also found many stock market risks for the years 2017, 2018, 2019 for the US stock market based on long-term market cycles which would support gold prices in the future, for example this cycle:
Which can lead you to versions created by traders and investors in the last years which are adapted to calculate near-future stock market cycle peaks.
Dow Jones Industrial Average