Hi everyone,
Even though i wrote DD on this June run, it actually happening also caught me off guard as well as OCC lending data and Swap data for GME, XRT, BBBY, AMC didn't show any strong indications of a run this month. What seems to have happened that caused today's pump is XRT Put Selling on Friday which is an event that happens the Friday before a week where a stock like GME/BBBY and etc run up.
I honestly wasn't expecting this Put Selling to amount to much for June and that's why i didn't make a post update about June's run, but here i am in the end...
To be clear, i am not sure what's about to happen. All my data points to nothing, whilst other people's data and DD points to a run and this makes me extremely confused. Because of my confusion, i did what anyone in my position would do and that's to put my entire portfolio on several of the stocks that could runup a lot tomorrow.
The majority of it is on GME. The rest is on BBBY, NIO, RBLX.
This isn't DD nor is it financial advice. I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this cycle. I was expecting nothing out of June, but it seems that there might be something. We'll find out tomorrow. I've marked the total duration of this run IF there will be one. Also i've marked the possible price targets for both tomorrow and next week Tuesday.
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To remind you of the cycle DD, basically every 3'rd Friday of the month (OPEX) that month's options or quarterly options are netted and the net result is pumped into the market the next Tuesday. If Monday is a Holiday, the effect is that that net amount hits the market +1 day later, or in our case tomorrow (Wednesday). Today was basically Friday's Put Selling Fart as i understand it. If there is going to be a run, it's to be seen tomorrow.
If there is a run, i expect the top to be in by Tuesday next week, but regardless, if there is a run, tomorrow will show this. I expect around 12% upside on tomorrow June 22 and a total of around 40% upside by next Tuesday IF there is truly a run here an to be clear, my data shows there isn't but other people's data shows that there is... so... i have no idea what to do. I'm in until tomorrow with everything i have.
Again, this is not investing, this is not DD, and this is not financial advice. Do your thing whatever that is responsibly.
The actual run i've discovered is on August 2 and August 8. Not the days in between, but those specific days. I'll be making DD on reddit about this eventually. It has to do with AMC, GME, BBBY, XRT swaps as well as their OCC lending volume data and how AMC and XRT are being used as hedging collateral in the OCC. Where XRT cannot be used anymore, AMC is used and where AMC cannot be used anymore, XRT is used. For this run, it's AMC's turn to be the hedge which is why i'm not very bullish about things as in the past when AMC was used as the hedge, GME was prevented from running (See March, June 2021).
Again, not DD, NFA. Be careful out there. I'm not too confident about this one (yet i'm all in, go figure).
Even though i wrote DD on this June run, it actually happening also caught me off guard as well as OCC lending data and Swap data for GME, XRT, BBBY, AMC didn't show any strong indications of a run this month. What seems to have happened that caused today's pump is XRT Put Selling on Friday which is an event that happens the Friday before a week where a stock like GME/BBBY and etc run up.
I honestly wasn't expecting this Put Selling to amount to much for June and that's why i didn't make a post update about June's run, but here i am in the end...
To be clear, i am not sure what's about to happen. All my data points to nothing, whilst other people's data and DD points to a run and this makes me extremely confused. Because of my confusion, i did what anyone in my position would do and that's to put my entire portfolio on several of the stocks that could runup a lot tomorrow.
The majority of it is on GME. The rest is on BBBY, NIO, RBLX.
This isn't DD nor is it financial advice. I honestly have no idea what's going to happen this cycle. I was expecting nothing out of June, but it seems that there might be something. We'll find out tomorrow. I've marked the total duration of this run IF there will be one. Also i've marked the possible price targets for both tomorrow and next week Tuesday.
--------------
To remind you of the cycle DD, basically every 3'rd Friday of the month (OPEX) that month's options or quarterly options are netted and the net result is pumped into the market the next Tuesday. If Monday is a Holiday, the effect is that that net amount hits the market +1 day later, or in our case tomorrow (Wednesday). Today was basically Friday's Put Selling Fart as i understand it. If there is going to be a run, it's to be seen tomorrow.
If there is a run, i expect the top to be in by Tuesday next week, but regardless, if there is a run, tomorrow will show this. I expect around 12% upside on tomorrow June 22 and a total of around 40% upside by next Tuesday IF there is truly a run here an to be clear, my data shows there isn't but other people's data shows that there is... so... i have no idea what to do. I'm in until tomorrow with everything i have.
Again, this is not investing, this is not DD, and this is not financial advice. Do your thing whatever that is responsibly.
The actual run i've discovered is on August 2 and August 8. Not the days in between, but those specific days. I'll be making DD on reddit about this eventually. It has to do with AMC, GME, BBBY, XRT swaps as well as their OCC lending volume data and how AMC and XRT are being used as hedging collateral in the OCC. Where XRT cannot be used anymore, AMC is used and where AMC cannot be used anymore, XRT is used. For this run, it's AMC's turn to be the hedge which is why i'm not very bullish about things as in the past when AMC was used as the hedge, GME was prevented from running (See March, June 2021).
Again, not DD, NFA. Be careful out there. I'm not too confident about this one (yet i'm all in, go figure).
Trade closed manually:
And i'm out.
Comment:
See you in August