Our opinion on the current state of GML

The Gemfields Group (GML), formerly known as Palinghurst Group, operates as a mining group with significant projects in the production of emeralds and rubies. Its major projects include Kagem, the world's largest producer of emeralds (located in Zambia), and rubies (at Montepuez in Mozambique), as well as Jupiter Mines, a South African producer of manganese. Led by Brian Gilbertson, formerly the CEO of BHP Billiton, the company identified the underdeveloped semi-precious stones market as an opportunity for consolidation and professional management, leading to the establishment of Gemfields.

Gemfields disposed of 60% of Jupiter Mines when it was listed on the Australian Stock Exchange (ASX) in April 2018, aligning with its strategic decision to focus purely on gemstones rather than being a diversified mining company. The company's shares are relatively well-traded, with an average daily trading volume of approximately R5 million worth of shares.

However, being a commodity-based company, Gemfields faces inherent risks tied to fluctuations in the prices of emeralds and rubies on the international market, as well as the challenges associated with mining operations in third-world countries. Despite these risks, Gemfields has managed to carve out a niche for itself with limited competition, positioning it well to benefit from the global economic recovery.

On October 24, 2022, the company announced the resumption of operations at MRM (Montepuez Ruby Mine) following an insurgent attack near the mine. Additionally, on August 7, 2023, Gemfields announced plans to construct a new processing plant to triple its output from the Montepuez ruby mine.

In its financial results for the year ending December 31, 2023, Gemfields reported a 23% decline in revenue and a headline loss of 0.9 cents (US) per share, compared to a profit of 4.8 cents in the previous period. The company attributed this performance to the withdrawal of a higher-quality emerald auction in November 2023 and an unrealized write-down of Gemfields' non-core equity holding in Sedibelo Resources, a platinum group metals mining company.

From a technical standpoint, the share price of Gemfields rose after an island formation, entering a strong upward trend that lasted until July 2023 when the trendline was broken. It is advisable to wait for the establishment of a new upward trend before considering investment in Gemfields.