Gold possible outbreak

Gold is just below the long descending trend line, which it had tested several times in the last weeks. Each time it has rebounded and plumped on the support-level (swing trend line @ 1314$ & fib retracement 78.6%).

This time it could have enough momentum to break the strong resistance at 1351$.

Why?

First, the sentiment for gold is generally positive.
Second, the indicators are better than last times. For example the MACD is in positive terrain but not far forward.
RSI has a positive trend, is only a little bit above "neutral". Enough way to go.

This time the chances are really good.

By the way: Silver also has a good run.

Stop:
If Gold rebounces at the mentioned resistance it could fall back on the support (it would be fifth time!).

Trade active:

Gold has fallen back on the support. We can now see an ascending trend line and Gold is getting into the peak of the triangle.
It has tested several times the upper layer and I am pretty sure that it will break through sooner or later.

Trade active:

The rebounce didn´t stop at the ascending trend line but at the swing trend line (as it had been in the past).

Comment:

With this the hope that we would be in a smaller ascending triangle with a faster break out to the top is lost.
So it´ll take a few days longer to get to higher prices.
At the moment Gold is weak and I can imagine that it´ll test also the fib retracement (dotted blue line).
The next fib retracement (green) is the important support. Once it is broken - the actual positive trend is in great danger.

Trade closed: stop reached:

Comment:

This time gold (and silver) haven´t have enough momentum to break through the long descending trend lines and the bears took over.
We´ve to wait for a new attack on this important resistance line.

If Gold rebounces at the actual support AND RSI stays above the trend line - then it could generate a good buy opportunity for short term traders.