From my analysis
GOLD
reacts very "violently" to any change in
DXY
, though sometimes it doesn't and other times there is a lag that allows one to predict a move in gold. What dxy will do in the short term will sometimes determine the price of gold short term. No point in shorting if DXY is falling and vice versa. Always follow dxy to be on the safe side.
Yields also show negatve correlation but it doesn't have an effect instantly like dxy does, however in macro terms it seems to have more impact.
Predicting DXY moves is hard because the prediction depends on many pairs and currency pairs are influenced by a wide array of variables. Just reading ideas on DXY can give you excellent perspectives that are totally conflicting, some believe DXY will explode, others that it will drop, and it is beyond my capacity to be assertive about it. I think (suspect) it will keep on rising. but It is not assertive enough, I think perhaps analysts can reach consensus sometimes, but it is not the case now because it is a critical point for dxy. My view is because i think other countries and the EU have been doing even worse in terms of monetary policy than the US. They are all printing money like crazy and I think the EU will have serious problems in 2022.
What i observed is that again gold retraced to 50% of previous drop. I don't believe in the fibonnaci wizardry but I have observed the 50% retracement over and over again. Today (so far) was another one of those days. It might drop to 1808 to the limit of the ascending chanel, but it depends on the dxy and market catalysts so I can't really make a prediction.
I believe gold is bearish overall and will eventually drop to 1700 levels, however, in 2022 it will reach all time highs, particularly if
BTCUSD
and other cryptos collapse because of problems with stablecoins and the collapse of china economy (comercial paper owned by companies like tether).
I wish I could have a more assertive view. My strategy will simply be to watch the price action, dxy, yields, silver and catalysts and react to anything that happens.
GOLD
reacts very "violently" to any change in
DXY
, though sometimes it doesn't and other times there is a lag that allows one to predict a move in gold. What dxy will do in the short term will sometimes determine the price of gold short term. No point in shorting if DXY is falling and vice versa. Always follow dxy to be on the safe side. Yields also show negatve correlation but it doesn't have an effect instantly like dxy does, however in macro terms it seems to have more impact.
Predicting DXY moves is hard because the prediction depends on many pairs and currency pairs are influenced by a wide array of variables. Just reading ideas on DXY can give you excellent perspectives that are totally conflicting, some believe DXY will explode, others that it will drop, and it is beyond my capacity to be assertive about it. I think (suspect) it will keep on rising. but It is not assertive enough, I think perhaps analysts can reach consensus sometimes, but it is not the case now because it is a critical point for dxy. My view is because i think other countries and the EU have been doing even worse in terms of monetary policy than the US. They are all printing money like crazy and I think the EU will have serious problems in 2022.
What i observed is that again gold retraced to 50% of previous drop. I don't believe in the fibonnaci wizardry but I have observed the 50% retracement over and over again. Today (so far) was another one of those days. It might drop to 1808 to the limit of the ascending chanel, but it depends on the dxy and market catalysts so I can't really make a prediction.
I believe gold is bearish overall and will eventually drop to 1700 levels, however, in 2022 it will reach all time highs, particularly if
BTCUSD
and other cryptos collapse because of problems with stablecoins and the collapse of china economy (comercial paper owned by companies like tether). I wish I could have a more assertive view. My strategy will simply be to watch the price action, dxy, yields, silver and catalysts and react to anything that happens.