barneysimps_on

GOLD is shining like once before

Long
BATS:GOLD   Barrick Gold Corporation
Last week, following the earnings release GOLD rebounced off multiple bottom support line and could spark up higher led by 1) strong guidance 2) high gold prices, and 3) divergence with the latter. For Q4 2023, Barrick has demonstrated organic growth in gold reserves for the third year in a row. The Company increased its gold mineral reserves by 5 million ounces before depletion in 2023. Now, its mineral reserves amount to 77 million. The management also released solid production guidance for 2024, suggesting a 6% increase in production, and announced a new $1 billion share repurchase program (yield of ~4% in the next 12 months). Judging by the multiples, the market understates Barrick’s prospects, among other, its high marginality, especially in terms of net profit. Barrick still pays relatively small dividends. The industry average P/E is 25x, while Barrick’s is 16x. Newmont is evaluated at 20x. It is noteworthy that the multiples are at multi-year lows, while the dividend yield (~2.8%) is at a local high. P/B LTM, as well as forward EV/EBITDA, symbolize that the stock prices have been falling for a long time, not reacting to the rising gold prices. The share price has dropped to $14, a level that has been reached four times since 2020 (multiple bottoms), and below which the shares have failed to gain a foothold. In recent months, expectations for the trajectory of gold prices have grown as the share price corrected, however, such a strong divergence should normalize.
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