Swing Trading the Regression Trend Line:

TVC:GOLD   CFDs on Gold (US$ / OZ)
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I recently have been back testing a strategy to effectively manage swing trades based on turning points in the COT Reports and swings in the Slope of the 5 Day Regression Trend Line .

In the above chart, I have noted the days (black lines) where the COT Reports mark a peak pivot point when Managed Money sentiment shifts from positive to negative and switches from buying long positions to selling long positions. This is generally the point where I exit any long positions and start shorting the miners.

At this point, I plot the PSAR on my chart and look for the points where it flips from positive to negative. This usually confirms the COT Report pivot points .

From this point forward, I plot a 5 day Linear Regression Trend line on my chart and extend the line forward. Every day I update this line and roll it forward.

Five days after the PSAR flips and starts to pivot down, I plot a Flat Top/Bottom indicator using the PSAR dots as the endpoints of the downward sloping line, and the flat line set to the recent 5 day price low.

Every day I update the Linear Regression Line and the Flat Top/Bottom lines and wait for the Linear Regression trend to flatten and turn slightly positive. When this happens, I start reversing my shorts and start buying long positions.

The current trend is appears to be strongly negative, and may take a few weeks before it starts to flatten out and turn positive.
COT Report shows Manage Money still holding a lot of long positions, but still unloaded 14,773 contracts.

Regression Trendline starting to flatten out, so next week may see an uptick on gold prices.

Watch for NK to stir the pot with another ICBM test.

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