LeRatton24
Long

Santa Rally Coming to GoPro? ($GPRO)

NASDAQ:GPRO   GOPRO INC
36 0 1
To Buy or not to Buy (Or in my case, to Add)


First the fundamentals... GoPro             isn't doing very well. 1) Their cameras appear to be everywhere... and that is the problem. The market appears to be saturated*. GoPro             may be suffering the same faith as $GMCR (but more on that later.) Unless a new market opens up, don't expect the number of camera sales sky rocketing. 2) Also, GoPro             appears to have an inventory problem. They will have to clear house before ramping new products, and that means discounted sales and lower profit returns. 3) Finally, there appears to be no innovation. Their latest model (4 Session) clearly shows they are heading in the right direction. A very capable, functional, compact camera resistant to most anything you can throw at it... but with a Fail Price from the get go. 4) Their newer model introductions seem to happen after the holiday seasons when everyone and their grandmas have spent all their hard earned money.

The above is a recipe for failure.

But the above is also an opportunity to demonstrate growth to Wall Street.

I chose to be LONG, but I truly should say Mid Term hold. My price targets are around $37 and $43. And below is why:

1) The Stock is at all time low.
2) All Fib retracement point to a potential floor at $20. ($19.xx to be exact.)
3) This is a relatively new IPO             trying to figure out where it should stand.
4) There is a clear overreaction to China and Ambarella             .
5) The Market Capital is below $3B, there is a huge list of unicorns out there that are twice that size.
6) The Stock is bound to touch IPO             price, this always happens. (not so technical here but give me a break)
7) All technical levels are on the floor. RSI , MACD , %R, et-al.
8) MACD appear to be creating a high low while the stock price is heading lower hitting resistance.

My Thoughts:

a) GoPro             is a great gift. Will sell. Will not disappoint.
b) Their forecasted growth is good, not as good as previously thought but good.
c) The short volume on this one is incredible. Only one great news and the coin will flip for the bulls.
d) GoPro             is tying new things: Media, TV Channel, Google             , and NHL deals.
e) GoPro             is well recognized name. It will be bought before it fails.

I am not a perm bear on this one. I had my Targets when I first bought it at $38, $40. I had my target at $60 and should have sold but China caught me off guard. I was bearish for a while and added at $33 thinking IPO             price would support it. The technicals now tell me this may be the time to add my final seed.

Seed, Grow, Harvest.


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