ucsgears

GPRO - option pain analysis marks a potential reversal point.

NASDAQ:GPRO   GOPRO INC
408 26 6
These marks the potential zone, where the option sellers could push the stock to close. Thus collecting over $15M every week on premium.

I can code this indicator, when the options data is available on TV.

Earnings coming up.

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jangseohee
2 years ago
could be a buy if the red channel is valid
GPRO, at 50% Gann level
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chartmojo PRO
2 years ago
Keep in mind earnings on the 29th but Lockup expiration of 76,000,000 shares comes Feb 17th that hardly anyone knows about...carefull on any longs except around earnings...
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ucsgears PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
Thanks for pointing out the, 6 month lockup.... That is very important.
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
you are welcome...
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ucsgears PRO
2 years ago
Option Strike Price Estimation using Option max pain strategy, Gave us a great IV crusher on this Earnings. Will wait until TV releases options data. This is a crusher Strategy for selling Options Premium on ANY ticker.
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
let me know what you come up with. This one has potential. ....I've just been liking the puts on any big pop...for some time now...now its got traders/shorts/hedge funds attention...so anythings possible...but the lockup will be real overhead..still not sure how many know about it....even though cnbc mentioned it yesterday...so many new traders in the market that have only known a bull run...they dont know what happened to the cool hype runner ipos at end the last bubble...I came back into the market to ride TSLA down but this popped up as a better opportunity for now...my other targets, a few bio's...good luck out there.
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ucsgears PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
I have the worst luck. lol That's why I increase my probabilities by looking for Setups, Max pain and Sector / Industry strengths.
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jangseohee ucsgears
2 years ago
Well, i am long at 47... now feeling nervous :-)
GPRO, where the price will be in next 71 bars?
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ucsgears PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
My trading strategy is simple. I don't consider trading this size Gaps. When I have a sizable gap, then look for 30 Mins Optimized Squeeze, and then take the trade. Flip it soon the momo loses. Then I wait for Daily Optimized squeeze, Use the profit (if) from the 30 mins squeeze as risk and trade the Daily Breakout (else) no Daily Squeeze trade. Simple and effective way to manage Risk, IMO.
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
thanks...interesting...sounds good...I like mo pops and sqeezes as well. I like to scan for up big ytd or year...with big negative earnings etc. (irrational runs) then dig into those looking for weakness...love hype runner ipo's...anything that is overly irrationally exhuberant...to ride them back to reality on mo pops...like to have something on my side other than just pure technicals or fundamentals...like gpros overhanging lockup expiration.. Also like to scan for prices far away from the 200 ma...for reversion to the mean...etc etc If I find those...I then look to trade it similar to the way you describe. I'de like to hear more about your maximum option pain thinking
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jangseohee chartmojo
2 years ago
how bout this, this is reflecting a growing economy :-)

snapshot
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ucsgears PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
For example when GLD was at 124. The option pain analysis predicted the gold will have to be below 118 for max pain. For Feb expiry. So I simply buy a put and added a call credit to take care of premium erosion. That decision was made based on the stretch wave reaction... The mono oscillator. For the LUV trade, sold the puts because of earnings and bought a immediate call flip before earning.
Currently in the put credit on USO. And a put buy on FXE from two days ago.
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
what would be max option pain...people buy sell them for so many reasons
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ucsgears PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
The concept is, At what strike price, the option buyers will face max loss? At what strike price, they start defending the options. There are the two criteria I look for. Profession Defend the options by adjusting the winning side, they do not defend adjusting the losing side. When I say professional, The hedge fund traders. If you refer to the same BABA chart before the massive run, I posted the Pain Analysis and Mentioned the $92 is the breakpoint where the Defending will take place. I treat Max pain as a zone. Where the OI is small between two extreme strike prices.
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jangseohee ucsgears
2 years ago
my call option is 45
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
max pain works but within the range nearing the expiration date..esp when a big event is occuring like a huge lockup...it honed in on 45 on gpro in the end...would of really tanked but the short sale restriction went into effect for a day, the day before exp..now its free to drop to the next pain area
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ucsgears PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
agreed, The process begins with estimating the expected move, and find the Max Pain there.
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ucsgears PRO chartmojo
2 years ago
Well, If I can share the code, you can see, what I mean. I spent atleast an year for this edge, back testing. So, its hard to wrap things in words.... This is where the 30% discretionary stuff I do. 70% rule based.
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
sounds like a good thesis...
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AlexAVG PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
Hi ucsgears, this looks exciting. Can you share this code? Thanks, Alex
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ucsgears PRO AlexAVG
2 years ago
the data is not currently supported
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chartmojo PRO ucsgears
2 years ago
you are good at coding right...how about a convergence divergence indicator using vxx or vix and aapl....using price...ck out my "spy" posted charts in the discussion today...it has vxx aapl spy...but an indicator sort of like an maacd could be useful...also would like to see a Linda Bradford Raschke roc indicator for tv...
+1 Reply
jangseohee chartmojo
2 years ago
i saw your chart, but i don know how to decipher and relate it to GPRO :-P
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chartmojo PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
dont think of gpro when looking at it....gpro is turned off...but the the scaling of the overlays is related to first stock put on the chart...but you can start with a gpro chart and add aapl price line...and vxx price line and see how they relate...gpro has allot of other stuff going on and dosent always move with them...but other high beta stock like tsla tend to
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chartmojo PRO jangseohee
2 years ago
sorry Jang...ucs is making a point. I thought you were referring to the multicolored charts I posted in the room this morn
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jangseohee chartmojo
2 years ago
yes the multicolored chart from you
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