Sales productivity today (blended) is in excess of $400/foot. In past recessions it's dropped down closer to $360/foot. And on a go-forward basis, with increasing competition from Uniqlo, H&M, and not to mention little ol' Primark, we think that GPS
is just structurally unable to compete -- especially at a 12%+ margin structure when we're late in the economic cycle
We're fully aware that the stock looks "cheap" (whatever that means) at 10x earnings
. But take sales productivity down by 15%-20% and the fixed cost deleverage takes earnings
per share negative. Not so "cheap" on those numbers.
Short Green into an overbought close,