Starting with the monthly chart here to show you just how major of a short trigger this has just hit. The bigger picture target would be the monthly 20sma if you were to want to swing it. But the r:r is terrible since you wouldn’t be wrong until it were to make new ATHs. So then how do you trade it? Thought you’d never ask!
The first area I will watch would be a retrace back to the monthly pivot at 33.52 which would also be right around a 50% retrace of Friday’s action. I kind of think that level may be a bit too close and would rather see if we can push up into the quarterly pivot at 35.64 which is closer to the most recent breakdown level we had on the daily chart. Make plans for everything though, which means we need to consider that it could actually push up a lot further before finding resistance that is too thick. The 40-42 area is where I would get pretty involved and possibly be looking for entries that allow for the swing idea as well. I think you have much clearer risk using 44 as the over/under level at that point. Keep in mind, it’s highly unlikely to get a push up to those kinds of levels in a single day or even a few. That area would be something for possibly later this week or early next week. Remember, you have to manage risk and be able to acknowledge when the idea is wrong and not working. The plan isn’t to enter at 33.5s and add the whole way up to 42. That’s suicidal. I would much rather take my papercuts on the way up and be ready to attack fresh at each level.
The first area I will watch would be a retrace back to the monthly pivot at 33.52 which would also be right around a 50% retrace of Friday’s action. I kind of think that level may be a bit too close and would rather see if we can push up into the quarterly pivot at 35.64 which is closer to the most recent breakdown level we had on the daily chart. Make plans for everything though, which means we need to consider that it could actually push up a lot further before finding resistance that is too thick. The 40-42 area is where I would get pretty involved and possibly be looking for entries that allow for the swing idea as well. I think you have much clearer risk using 44 as the over/under level at that point. Keep in mind, it’s highly unlikely to get a push up to those kinds of levels in a single day or even a few. That area would be something for possibly later this week or early next week. Remember, you have to manage risk and be able to acknowledge when the idea is wrong and not working. The plan isn’t to enter at 33.5s and add the whole way up to 42. That’s suicidal. I would much rather take my papercuts on the way up and be ready to attack fresh at each level.
