IvanLabrie
Short

Copper: Republishing my old forecast and new trade setup

COMEX:HG1!   Copper Futures
Hi, I'd like to repost a private idea I had (I did post it in related ideas in my last retracement long idea for copper             -which actually worked for the 1st entry before a massive turn south-).
We have a clear short opportunity as outlined by my friend Tom Killick (he does great coverage of copper             and USDCLP             , check in related ideas).

If we're offered with a retracement we can take these two entries for a low risk trade:
snapshot
If not, I'll be forced to operate off the 4h or daily chart and jump on the trend in some other way...There's always a good excuse to join a trend, and if you don't have many, you will miss out on the best trades (many times they never come back to you once they leave the station).

Cheers,
Ivan Labrie.
Comment: Some correlated markets:

USDCNH is in an 11 month downtrend, and has already exceeded the projected range twice...
There's no sign of it stopping any time soon, nor copper, and it's clear that the Shanghai index will follow suit.

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Comment: En route. No way to enter without using lower timeframes though.
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Trail stop to entry and hold!
Trade closed manually: I reccomend covering the shorts for now.
Hi Ivan, like you I'm an avid practioner of Neowave and what bothers me regarding copper right now is the obvious possibility of a terminal impuls from the top
EURUSD has a low probability rally to Sep 14
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bracken bracken
sorry about the wrong chart/dont know what happened
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snapshot
Hi Ivan, like you I'm an avid practioner of Neowave and what bothers me regarding copper right now is the obvious possibility of a terminal impuls from the top. The whole pattern from 2007 could in that case be counted as an ab(terminal)c 3.3.5
Like very much your work. keep them coming
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bracken bracken
"The main purpose of the stockmarket is to make fools of as many as possible" (Bernard Baruch)

What could then be more appropriate than an irregular flat failure from 2007?
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Hahaha!
Yeah, I wouldn't discard that possibility, but I'm not focusing too much on Neowave here.
Right now the time at mode arsenal tells me to remain short, same as fundamentals for the stocks and China.
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This surely looks like an impulse in the daily...but correction time is too long, so maybe a B?
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It's always important to see and understand "the big picture" as to why the metals and commodity related contracts are doing what they are doing.Alasdair Macleod via GoldMoney.com gives you his economic fundamental perspective.The economic analysis was on Zero Hedge.IMO,you won't hear any of this type of economic analysis from any Central Bank or Government:
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-01-09/gold-2016-economic-power-shifting
+1 Reply
IvanLabrie PRO RobertHerdman
Thanks for the link.
I do think we'll see a bit more rallying in gold, but not a full fledged bull market like this article implies.
This can last a long time, and still see continuos declines in gold and copper.
I trade what I see, here and now, and can predict to a certain extent. Looking further into the future isn't the realm of trading but of analysis and forecasting (neither which produce money by themselves).
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I'm having to rethink: Isnt the chart everything we need to know....???
HG1!: I JUST LOVE THIS COPPER CHART
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
yes and no.
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moorekapital IvanLabrie
Ok
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IvanLabrie PRO moorekapital
I mean, the chart is vital for the specifics of trading, but fundamental analysis and knowledge will aid you in finding or discarding trades.
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Is it time to short copper again? It may go down to your targets with all other commodities (time to short gold and silver).
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IvanLabrie PRO KholleKhokk
I think so.
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IvanLabrie PRO IvanLabrie
I'll post a new chart, we have 10 weeks at this level.
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Dr Copper is always interesting! Or perhaps rather "always should be...."
It's hard to imagine a rising business cycle for the world economy without the price of copper also rising. Copper is often called Dr Copper because it's regarded as a dependable leading indicator for the business cycle
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