Hang Seng has risen this week up to +7.16% (according to teletrader.com) with a large bull candle.
At the low at 24540 the (14) has plunged to 31 area, which is the lowest reading since Oct. 11. At this time HS priced at 25266 (closing price) and plunged for the rest of the month. More important is the fact, that a divergence is to observe at the low in price and . This often support a change of trend short-term. The a/d-Ratio closed at .76, after it topped at 2.89 one day before. I have marked the level of this high with a . You will observe, that ,ore often than not, the Index was still rising on, while the ratio shows weakness. This is not a normal behavior and must be observe.
As of my last analyze I wrote, that a potencially reversal-pattern occured on a daily basisi with the „Island-reversal-gap“ and it happend that HS rallied the day after with a massiv gap-up to new highs short-term. It was accompied by a “jump“ into the trendchannel, which I think is important. May a pullback to the lower line of the channel will occur, but as long as the low at 24540 is valid the short-term trend is up.
At the level of 26500 there is a high from Oct, 10th, a potencially wave 4 level. This one must be taken out of chart for higher prices still, but the next resistance is close ahead; it is the .618 Fibonacci of the decline from 28031 from Sep. 26! Again, the 28K level is to meet at chart. This is an important level which need to take off the table.
Short term it is possible that a pullback has to occur, but as long the low is valid,we will face higher prices still. An important level is the .618 Fibonacci at 26698 area. But just a solid close above the 27284 zone, the .786 Fibonacci will set the stage for a longer lasting advance.
So, it is still a long way to go, but as long as a pessimistic mood is underways and the fear of trade-tariffs are still in the market, the change is high for advancing markets.
Adecline below the 24540 level will indicate that a Major bear market could be underway.
Have a great week.....