Hang Seng lost this week 4.38% (according to “teletrader.com) and closed below my area @ 26648 and retraced more than the 0.88 Fibonacci. So for now, the former low at 262196. Is important for the view, but the odds do decrease.
A break below this level will open the door to 26075-25200 area, the wave “4” one of one lesser degree. A level before is at 25990, which is the 1.27 Fib Extension of wave a-b!
Another critical zone is the deep retracement Hang Seng is declining to. While wave 4, no matter which degree, rarely pushed (or break) to more than the 0.5 Fibonacci, Hang Seng has dropped close to this RT! So, again. This is rarely the case, but in rules of EW it is still allowed.
So, to my view, it is last call for Hang Seng to reverse.
I have drawn a trend channel (blue dotted line) to the graph which shows that HS is running in between these lines. HS touched the upper line several times, which make this channel important. Any break of the upper line, will indicate the end of the multi month lasting declining price action.
While a break below the lower line indicate the same, but in opposite direction.
So for a trader it is safer to wait for clearer odds, to one or the other direction.
Step beside and wait…and have a tea, or two! :-)
Have a great week…
Questions and Comments are welcome!
Note!---> This analys can be wrong. It is just in my view the one with the most probabiltity with the Data which are available to me and by my interpretation of the EW Theory. If you trade this it is done by your own risk and decision! Keep that in Mind!!!