the key will be exceeding largest % decline in this run up. so far it has not. The longer in time the patterns are the less likely they are to work. Reason? Everyone is looking at the same thing, thinking the same thing. Short mid term patters have higher chances to be more accurate. just my 2 cents.
I agree with you that once a pattern is obvious, the chances are that it will fail, but I've traded these pattern long enough to know that over time, their accuracy rate is about the same as in shorter time frames. I think we have another leg up in $IBB before the reversal, perhaps to a double top, but that is too soon to know.