- (UNTIL NOW)Right now a new scenario is being drawn that will be supported by the almost seen lows of COVID, the 6200 (fibo 1.0). After banning the CNMV from short positions in stocks, the index has rebounded strongly, and has left the lows far. This together with the rebound on Wall Street of the American indices has made the IBEX rebound with great force. We have reached the first resistance, the 7100. This resistance may take a couple of weeks to overcome. Once this happens, this resistance will become support. So in the short term it is better to wait a couple of weeks to buy, and in the long term it has never been a better time.
- Short term (this next week is the index and could reach 6300)
- (COMING SOON)This support, the 7100 (fibo 1.61) is going to be 1 year support at least and will touch it repeatedly. In summer, very possibly when presenting results in 2020, it will be played again. The maximum, the 8300 (fibo 2.61), before summer will be touched and it will be time to undo positions.
The possible correction of the American indices will not exceed the lows already seen, I hope that the SP500 will come as close to 2,500 as possible and will not let it touch the 2400 support. A lot of new money is coming in that had not been in the stock market before and this it affects that the short positions are more reluctant to enter and more when time runs against them and Spain is less than two weeks away from ending the confinement. They have already made quite an impact having dropped the index by 45% as seen in the graph from highs.
As a future forecast, the levels prior to COVID19 will not be recovered , at most they will be 33% of the maximum this year and 15% the year you come, and in many companies not 50%, especially the Spanish banks that They will not see those levels again, I think, until at least 2022. SANTANDER will reach 3 euros per share (4 maximum) and BBVA (4 Euros per share (5.5 maximum)
FULL ANALYSIS on soon