To me the probability of, here the IUXX, IMO applies to all US, (& by implication perhaps global indices(?) (Asian more buoyant tho') making a top and downturn is really quite high ( very US dollar focused ).
Using the structures drawn here around the IUXX, the Russell 2000, top of the game, the DJIA, though it and the SPX have already potentially dropped off their high points, by overlay they are up on the top red line would suggest such strongly, even with scaling taken into consideration. Overlay is an interesting exercise esp. for overbought, & the basic up channel lines and down used by various as the TNX (which I found surprising), Gold (less so), the Euro Index, it's current upward channel sits in the Mod Schiff pitchfork over on the right. Summary, this being on a monthly scale would appear to describe to extent the ups and downs of entire markets. That they are in pivot mode I have little doubt. It has been a strange trading week in a number of respects, (perhaps a fog before clarity) but trading the UJ, gold, and indices, two points of focus, the UJ, more on that in another chart, but the tease this week gone between precious metals and stocks is tweaking towards an outcome. Metals are buy when stocks are sell.
Focusing on the IUXX here: reasoning for formation of pivotal top (I think there may be a lag here with the IUXX as is apparently as yet immune)
1) down channel lines very good spanning many years of predictors of resistance, it's looks about to bump into a big one (strong)
2) horizontal price, again as shown blue boxes, support becomes resistance (strong), overlay, gold 'knows' about those price levels.
3) the xabcd pattern, x - d = 0.618 (not sold on this, technically it should be further up, but I'm not on home turf with these, the triangle-ness will do for me, tried them recently and generally go, oh look, thats pretty Fib numbers, not to be used alone, but a good supplement.)
4) The Fibonacci / Pitchfan, much stronger. Drawn from Pivot X to A placing B at the ML, the opposing 1.00 line lands as shown. Worked superbly recently with the UJ, which is why I theorized it was never really going up, not yet, anyhow. Exact point tapped the opposing 1.00, it peaked and fell.
5) Perhaps weaker, yet not that weak, is the Mod Schiff Ive drawn in which again agrees a pivotal top at 3272.73. The fit & behaviour so far is very neat / resistances/support @ 0.382, ML, 0.618 etc both in and behind the fork.
6) Similarities/ pattern comparisons to 2002 - 2007 (imo, weaker but notable.)
7) The RSI moves into overbought, not yet peaked maybe, but market fragility, significant I think.
Lacking, indicative candles, e.g spinning top etc. Summary: if not so already, somewhere in the circled area, peaks and the downturn to the down channel. How much? I'm not sure. The point: my best shot, there at 3272.73, big resistance point. The date that has my focus/curiosity at the mo from other charts, daily etc, e.g EURJPY, 15th October.
But technicals aside, an interesting point of psychology: (post FOMC, not taper),
which to me explains at least a subtle part of a generally directionless market week,
when you know you can have as much as you want, for real, like any addict, one tends to lose interest.
Or perhaps something else must take over as guiding parameters?
Using the structures drawn here around the IUXX, the Russell 2000, top of the game, the DJIA, though it and the SPX have already potentially dropped off their high points, by overlay they are up on the top red line would suggest such strongly, even with scaling taken into consideration. Overlay is an interesting exercise esp. for overbought, & the basic up channel lines and down used by various as the TNX (which I found surprising), Gold (less so), the Euro Index, it's current upward channel sits in the Mod Schiff pitchfork over on the right. Summary, this being on a monthly scale would appear to describe to extent the ups and downs of entire markets. That they are in pivot mode I have little doubt. It has been a strange trading week in a number of respects, (perhaps a fog before clarity) but trading the UJ, gold, and indices, two points of focus, the UJ, more on that in another chart, but the tease this week gone between precious metals and stocks is tweaking towards an outcome. Metals are buy when stocks are sell.
Focusing on the IUXX here: reasoning for formation of pivotal top (I think there may be a lag here with the IUXX as is apparently as yet immune)
1) down channel lines very good spanning many years of predictors of resistance, it's looks about to bump into a big one (strong)
2) horizontal price, again as shown blue boxes, support becomes resistance (strong), overlay, gold 'knows' about those price levels.
3) the xabcd pattern, x - d = 0.618 (not sold on this, technically it should be further up, but I'm not on home turf with these, the triangle-ness will do for me, tried them recently and generally go, oh look, thats pretty Fib numbers, not to be used alone, but a good supplement.)
4) The Fibonacci / Pitchfan, much stronger. Drawn from Pivot X to A placing B at the ML, the opposing 1.00 line lands as shown. Worked superbly recently with the UJ, which is why I theorized it was never really going up, not yet, anyhow. Exact point tapped the opposing 1.00, it peaked and fell.
5) Perhaps weaker, yet not that weak, is the Mod Schiff Ive drawn in which again agrees a pivotal top at 3272.73. The fit & behaviour so far is very neat / resistances/support @ 0.382, ML, 0.618 etc both in and behind the fork.
6) Similarities/ pattern comparisons to 2002 - 2007 (imo, weaker but notable.)
7) The RSI moves into overbought, not yet peaked maybe, but market fragility, significant I think.
Lacking, indicative candles, e.g spinning top etc. Summary: if not so already, somewhere in the circled area, peaks and the downturn to the down channel. How much? I'm not sure. The point: my best shot, there at 3272.73, big resistance point. The date that has my focus/curiosity at the mo from other charts, daily etc, e.g EURJPY, 15th October.
But technicals aside, an interesting point of psychology: (post FOMC, not taper),
which to me explains at least a subtle part of a generally directionless market week,
when you know you can have as much as you want, for real, like any addict, one tends to lose interest.
Or perhaps something else must take over as guiding parameters?