Comp: Sell Off On High Pessimism for TVC:IXIC by SwissView

The CNN Great & Fear Index is showing today the lowest reading in 2017 by 36 or "Fear".

If ever this bullmarket is not reversed to a new bearmarket than this low number might indicate that downside potential is still limited.

Quote: "During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 32.00% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors."

Last changed Mar 20 from a Fear rating

Updated Mar 21 at 4:04pm
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MAR 21 2017: This trading idea for the comp is activated at 5.793,8.

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MAR 21 2017: Markets fret as Trump agenda shows signs of cracks

The steepest pullback in stocks since the U.S. presidential election reveals investor angst about President Donald Trump's ability to push through major reforms, leaving stocks vulnerable to a long-anticipated correction.
The S&P 500, in its second longest bull market ever, has risen close to 10 percent since the Nov. 8 election on optimism about Trump's pro-growth agenda. With valuations at their highest in over a decade, investors have been expecting a pullback even if its catalysts haven't been clear.
Trump, looking to score the first major political win of his presidency, on Tuesday warned Republican lawmakers that if a healthcare bill he backs fails to pass, it would cause "political problems." Stocks fell alongside the U.S. dollar, while Treasuries and gold rallied.
"It's like the Trump agenda getting kind of slapped in the face," said Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Investors saw the health bill vote, expected on Thursday, as testing optimism that the Trump administration and Republican leaders will implement tax cuts, deregulation and infrastructure spending expected to boost economic growth.

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MAR 21 2017: The ‘crash protection’ index is sending a warning flare for the market — or not

Quote: "The chart of an obscure index is making its way around Wall Street. And some say that its recent surge suggests that traders are now more interested in protecting their portfolios from serious downside.
"We're at very significant levels" on the index, strategist Larry McDonald said Monday on CNBC's "Trading Nation." In a blog post, he wrote that the main reason for the index's high level is that "oo many market participants don't trust the rally, want to buy downside protection."Some have gone even further, suggesting that the chart shows investors are becoming more nervous about crashes, and that people are paying more to protect themselves against a "black swan" event that could be just over the horizon.

That would be the CBOE skew index, which is near all-time highs. As the CBOE puts it, the index "measures the perceived tail risk of S&P 500 log returns at a 30-day horizon." In other words, it represents an attempt to use options prices in order to determine the market-implied probability of a crash.

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MAR 21 2017: How the stock market performs after a streak of at least 100 days without a 1% decline ends

Quote: The data group have cited only 11 such instances in which trading without a down day hit the century mark, and on average during the week, month and three months following the first decline during those periods, the broad-market S&P 500 tends to end higher.
For the week, the average gain is 0.65%, advancing 8 out of 11 times. The average return after a month is 2.34%, with returns positive in 9 out those 11 occasions. After three months, average returns are about 2.44%, boasting gains in 8 out of those 11 periods (see table below).

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MAR 22nd 2017: Asian stocks pull back on fresh doubts about Trump policies
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MAR 22 2017: F&G Index 31. Chart:

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Cls: 31: This is the lowest number since the U.S. election on November 9th 2016. If ever the bullmarket is not reversed this is a very low reading for a bullmarket. Usually low numbers like this are followed by impressive up moves.
(31 means Fear, closing in to extreme fear wich is below 25)

Sub-Indicators:

F&G-Index: CBOE 5-DAY Average Put/Call Ratio - Extreme Fear
Quote: During the last five trading days, volume in put options has lagged volume in call options by 29.67% as investors make bullish bets in their portfolios. However, this is still among the highest levels of put buying seen during the last two years, indicating extreme fear on the part of investors.
Last changed Mar 20 from a Fear rating Updated Mar 22 at 10:26am

F&G Index: Differenece in 20-day stock and bond returns - Extreme Fear
Bonds have outperformed stocks by 1.30 percentage points during the last 20 trading days. This is close to the weakest performance for stocks relative to bonds in the past two years and indicates investors are fleeing risky stocks for the safety of bonds. Last changed Mar 20 from a Fear rating

F&G Index: McClellan Volume Summationn Index - Exreme Fear
The McClellan Volume Summation Index measures advancing and declining volume on the NYSE. During the last month, approximately 11.98% more of each day's volume has traded in declining issues than in advancing issues, pushing this indicator towards the lower end of its range for the last two years. Last changed Mar 13 from a Fear rating
Updated Mar 22 at 10:27am

F&G-Index: VIX and its 50-day movinng average -Fear
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 12.56, 8.28% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are concerned about the near-term values of their portfolios. Last changed Mar 20 from a Neutral rating Updated Mar 22 at 10:26am

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MAR 22 2017 S&P, Nasdaq little changed; Dow dragged down by Nike

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MAR 22 2017, Sentiment: Gartman says US stocks set for 5% correction … or perhaps something far worse

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MAR 22 2017, Politics: Trump seeks to nail support for healthcare bill before House vote
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MAR 22 2017 U.S. stocks struggle for gains; Nike pulls Dow lower

Quote: Investing.com – Wall Street traded with mixed signs on Wednesday as market players wait for developments on the new healthcare policy and its impact on U.S. President Donald Trump’s plans to move forward with other fiscal policies, while the Dow was under pressure from disappointing earnings from Nike and investors also digested the latest government data on U.S. crude stockpiles. Source:

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MAR 22 2017: Gold hits 3-week peak as investors ditch equities on Trump worries
Quote: Gold climbed to a three-week high on Wednesday as the dollar fell to near six-week lows and bond yields sank on uncertainty over the economic policies of President Donald Trump. Spot gold rose 0.45 percent to $1,250.15 per ounce.
The lack of a concrete policy from the Trump administration is increasing gold's attraction as a safe-haven investment, analysts and traders said. Source:

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MAR 22 2016: No follow thru after Tuesdays sell off.

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F&G Index dropped to 31, lowest number since the U.S. Election.

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Comment: MAR 22 2017 - Sentiment: No trust in Trumponomics anymore.
Slide in U.S. infrastructure stocks sign of 'Trump trade' weakness

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Greed & Fear Index: Chart open this link, than please scroll down

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MAR 23 2017: Vote looming, Trump struggles to win Obamacare repeal

Quote: WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. President Donald Trump on Thursday was set to make a final push on Thursday to secure the votes to begin dismantling Obamacare in the House of Representatives, with signs that enough Republicans might defect to jeopardize one of his top legislative priorities. Trump has mounted an intensive campaign to garner support for the initiative and the effort is seen by financial markets as a crucial test of his ability to move his legislative agenda, including planned tax cuts, through Congress.

Republican leaders hoped to vote on Thursday but there were signs the deadline could be pushed back. Trump scheduled an 11:30 a.m. ET/1530 GMT meeting with members of the conservative House Freedom Caucus at the White House.
"We're still open for negotiations," Representative Ted Yoho, a member of the conservative group, told CNN. "There is still time."Democratic Representative Steny Hoyer said the majority Republicans clearly did not have enough votes to pass the bill, which has been championed by House Speaker Paul Ryan. Source:

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MAR 23 2017: Donald Trump is not almighty and USDMXN understood this at once. Click on this chart and than press "play" for todays action.

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MAR 23 2017: All major sentiment Indicators showing "fear" or "extreme fear" - even Markets just a few points under multi year highs or all time highs (DAX)

Before you read this news about todays market action (link below) keep your attention to the high level of putbuying at the CBOE: Total Intraday Put/Call Ratio 1,13. If ever there might be any higher number before the weekend the remind that usually high numbers like this are followed by a major spike to the upside some trading days later. Expect that a "fail" for Donald J. Trump might be nothing else than "sell the news" (for shortsellers). You need to invert the situation.

DAX Traders need to be aware that the EUWAX Sentiment Indicator today once more was extremely negative - means nothing else that putbuying was extremely high.
Quote: Wall St closes lower after Healthcare vote delay

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MAR 24 2017: Trump demands support in do-or-die Friday vote on healthcare plan

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MAR 24 2017: CBOE Intraday Put Call Ratio 1,34. last time this high number occured U.S. Stockmarkets started a sharp up move on high momentum some days later.

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MAR 29 2017: Trump to unveil $1 trillion infrastructure plan in 2017: official

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MAR 29 2017: The Greed & Fear Index on Monday falling to "22" or extreme fear. The F&G Index was on this low level in 2016 only in the last days before the U.S. Election on November 9th 2016 and in the early Month of January and February 2016 when the stockmarket crash dumped the SPX to the 1.800 level. Today the F&G is still low with 34.

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MAR 30 2017: Nasdaq extends bullish March reversal, vying for record close

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MAR 30 2017: NASDAQ Comp end on new All Time High

Trade closed: target reached

Trade closed manually

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Comment: MAR 31 2017: Traders should focus now on this Issue. Marketscould react with a major sell off to any (!) Testimony.

Flynn seeks immunity for testimony

Trade active:

Re Entry Comp long on APR 04 2017.

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Comment: APR 04 2017 - Qoute: Keep Your Eye On U.S.-China Summit
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Re Entry Comp long on APR 04 2017

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APR 05 2017 - Quote: In reversal, Bannon removed from National Security Council
(CNN)Steve Bannon, President Donald Trump's chief strategist, has been removed from his permanent seat at the National Security Council, multiple sources tell CNN, moving the council into a more traditional format.
The decision, which one source with knowledge said was made by Trump himself, comes after the President in January authorized the reorganization of the National Security Council to include Bannon as a permanent member of the panel. Source:

Trade closed: stop reached

Comment:

Net gain 20 points

Trade active:

APR 06 2017 - Re entry long
Head of House conservatives: Tax reform possible by August

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Comment: APR 07 2017 Mixed jobs report leaves markets unfazed about Fed rate hikes

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APR 08 2017 Chinese state media cheer Xi-Trump meeting, say confrontation not inevitable

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APR 08 2017: A conflicted stock market faces moment of truth as earnings loom
If earnings meet expectations, it could be the best quarter since third quarter 2011

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APR 10 2017 Investors look to global growth for earnings power

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Comment: APR 09 2017 - Ford CEO Mark Fields 'encouraged' by US-China future as Trump, Xi end summit

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APR 10 2017 - Sentiment turning extremely negative today. The VIX is now rising above 13,5. The Cboe intraday Put Call Ratio is up to 1,21. The Great and Fear Index is down to 36 and US Yields dropping 2 basis points...

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APR 10 2017 - Treasury yields slide after largest one-day yield-gain in 2 weeks

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APR 10 2017 - Opinion: Trump, May show surprising tilt toward pragmatism
Quote: Instead of acrimony and tantrums, we got cooperation and compromise
... However, in the past few days, the U.S. and British leaders have shown they are perfectly capable of reasonable policies designed around compromise rather than confrontation. ...
... The president carried out what appears to have been another valuable service by removing his top aide Steve Bannon from the White House National Security Council, where the former head of right-wing website Breitbart News had seemed out of place. ...
.... In a retreat from “no-holds-barred” Brexit orthodoxy, Britain has said it would abide by some rules — including free movement of citizens — during a transition in which new regulations are being phased in. On a visit to Saudi Arabia last week, May attuned her EU dictum to Realpolitik principles, accepting that no full trade deal can be concluded until after the U.K. leaves and conceding that immigration from the EU could continue until after the next British election in 2020. ...
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APR 11 2017: VIX is rising again today allmost 10%. This is very positiv for any stockmarkets, especially if an index is close to an all time high. Open the Charts to see the Vix:

Weekly:
Daily:

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APR 11 2017 - Greed & Fear Index droped again to the lowest levels since the U.S. Election on November 9th 2016.
Quote: VIX: The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is at 15.10, 26.64% above its 50-day moving average and indicates that investors are concerned about the near-term values of their portfolios. Last changed Apr 7 from a Fear rating Updated Apr 11 at 9:54am

Trade closed: stop reached

Comment:

Stand by Force entry.

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Stand by for er entry. ViIX now close to 16.

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Stand by for re entry ....

Trade active:

Long entry.

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Comment: APR 17 2017: China beats GDP forecast

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APR 17 2017 - China Roars Back to Lift Global Outlook as U.S. Consumer Weakens

- Economy on pace to power one-third of global growth in 2017
- Government makes progress in restraining runaway credit growth

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APR 17 2017 - re entry at the lows of the day after opening pre market trading, below fridays closing lows.

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APR 17 2017 - NDY sold equal comp to 5.873 on April 11th 2017 and bought back tonight below fridays lows equal to Comps 5795 shortly after opening the pre market trading and before China´s GDP numbers. The next days might show if there might be any downside momentum left and to step to the sidelines once more. US-Stockmarkets are high valued. This time there is no room for buy and hold strategies without riskmanagment and SL-Orders.

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APR 17 2017 U.S. stocks shrug off global tensions and eye M&A

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APR 17 2017 Wall Street gains as focus shifts to earnings

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APR 17 2017 - Brazil's economy grew at its fastest pace since 2010 and its stocks are flying high

Trade closed: stop reached

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Markets turning back to focus on geopolitics. Four trading-days before the France Election risks for shortterm trades rising. Time to step to the sidedlines again.

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APR 18 2017: Futures point to lower open as Street worries about North Korea and French elections

Trade active:

Apr 18: Markets turning away from global politics. 5 hours later re-entry. Day trading is a confusing issue, obviously. Usually i am not doing this. Sold at 2.344, re entry at 2.338.

Trade closed: stop reached

Comment:

Sideline again.

Trade active:

APR 18 2017 - re entry. Sold by SL before at equal to 5.850, re entry at 5.835. Thx, bears.

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APR 18 2017: VIX still confirming next move for stockmarkets might be likely more to the upside than to the downside.

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APR 18 2017- Long ledged Doji. Closing price on wednesday 19th of April above the candle means up trend is going to continue. Closing price below todays low means the trend is reversed. Also this pattern is an so called "inside day" means where the move will go the following trading day the trend will accelerate.

SL is set via SPX/SPX some points below intraday low April 18th 2017.

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VIX:

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APR 19 2017: Comp is up. Indicators as shown above had been right.

Trade closed: stop reached

Trade active:

Er entry.

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APR 20 2017: Comp very close to new ATH.

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"Re entry" (above, not Er entry). Runs good so far.

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APR 20 2017 - The market suddenly doubts the Fed will raise rates twice more this year

Traders assign just a 41 percent chance that the Fed will raise interest rates three times this year.
Goldman economist Jan Hatzius counters that concerns over the economy now will abate and allow the Fed to fulfill its projections for 2017
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APR 24 2017: Wall Street surges, Nasdaq hits record on French vote result

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APR 25 2017: Wall St up on earnings; Nasdaq touches 6,000 for first time

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- Comp: Another All Time High @ 6.48,90

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ATH @ 6.048,9, closing.

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NASDAQ closes at record high ahead of major techs earnings.

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Amazon, Alphabet drive Nasdaq to record high

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Nasdaq hits record highs ahead of Apple earnings

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Brazil's manufacturing PMI rises past 50 for first time since 2015

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Jobs creation expected to bounce back, miss could push back rate hikes

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Stocks close at all-time highs as Street shrugs off jobs report
The U.S. economy added 138,000 jobs last month, the Labo Department said, missing a consensus estimate of 185,000.
But the Dow, S&P and Nasdaq all managed record highs on an intraday and closing basis.

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Comment: China May data to show stable growth as exports stay solid

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S&P, Dow flat after Comey testimony; Nasdaq at record high

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UPDATES since June 8 2017 here:

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NASDAQ: Short term sell signal