Princess Gwen here, awake after a long slumber through dull markets. Markets were very boring, and a Princess needs to be fresh for any actual big market moves, so this Princess took a long sleep in the enchanted forest. But goodness, I'm awake now.
Everyone in the world seemed to discover this past week that bad financial news was actually bad. Up until then, they were under a mass delusion that bad news didn't matter, and that the fed could pull infinite bunnies out of its hat and save everyone with those bunnies. I think it was the combined 1-2 punch of the Fed lowering rates, and China letting its currency fall that shocked markets. Fed rates don't matter now. China is now in charge of all terms in the trade war, and anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. Everywhere, people violently came to the conclusion that the party was over, and that they had no way to leave. Gold jumped, then silver.
And now I'm just going to repeat what I've been saying since last year, that this is all going to end badly. Very rough estimates put the bottom around half the current value, so maybe 4,000. That's my ballpark, and it coincides nicely with a Fib level.
It could very well go lower. My suspicion is that a market drop of any magnitude will cause debts to default, which would just cause prices to go lower still, causing other breaks, until you get a long, catastrophic avalanche in world finance. I've been looking at the Great Depression to understand the dynamics behind really big crashes. I think the answer is that there isn't enough money to pay back all the existing debt. If debts fail, all that money just goes poof.
But all this just fills in as commentary. These markets have been poised to fail since January 2018. The topping process is very, very long, and full of raging bulls. However, when the drop starts, it's not going to end for a very long time.
Everyone in the world seemed to discover this past week that bad financial news was actually bad. Up until then, they were under a mass delusion that bad news didn't matter, and that the fed could pull infinite bunnies out of its hat and save everyone with those bunnies. I think it was the combined 1-2 punch of the Fed lowering rates, and China letting its currency fall that shocked markets. Fed rates don't matter now. China is now in charge of all terms in the trade war, and anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling themselves. Everywhere, people violently came to the conclusion that the party was over, and that they had no way to leave. Gold jumped, then silver.
And now I'm just going to repeat what I've been saying since last year, that this is all going to end badly. Very rough estimates put the bottom around half the current value, so maybe 4,000. That's my ballpark, and it coincides nicely with a Fib level.
It could very well go lower. My suspicion is that a market drop of any magnitude will cause debts to default, which would just cause prices to go lower still, causing other breaks, until you get a long, catastrophic avalanche in world finance. I've been looking at the Great Depression to understand the dynamics behind really big crashes. I think the answer is that there isn't enough money to pay back all the existing debt. If debts fail, all that money just goes poof.
But all this just fills in as commentary. These markets have been poised to fail since January 2018. The topping process is very, very long, and full of raging bulls. However, when the drop starts, it's not going to end for a very long time.