Summary: Investors showed a day of bullish optimism as oil prices found a top and receded sharply. The volatility is not likely over, but it's good to see support coming back into equity indexes.
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
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Wednesday, March 9, 2022
Facts: +3.59%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 54% Green
Good: Higher high, higher low, great closing range
Bad: Lower volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Half body in middle of visible upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 3.09, three advancing for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+2.57%), DJI (+2.00%), RUT (+2.71%), VIX (-7.63%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.96%) and Financials (XLF +3.67%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.71%) and Energy (XLE -3.06%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
Investors showed a day of bullish optimism as oil prices found a top and receded sharply. The volatility is not likely over, but it's good to see support coming back into equity indexes.
The Nasdaq gained +3.59% today. Volume was lower than the previous day but higher than the 50d average volume. The candle has a 54% green body that sits in the middle of visible upper and lower wicks. The lower wick is a bit longer, forming just after an open significantly higher than yesterday's close. The closing range was great at 84%, leaving behind a small upper wick formed in the late afternoon. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the best gain for the day. Small-caps came next with a +2.71% advance for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +2.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) finished with a +2.00% gain despite being held back by big oil declines. The VIX Volatility Index receded -7.63%, although it still remains elevated.
Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Technology (XLK +3.96%) and Financials (XLF +3.67%) were at the top of the sector list. The Financials sector was helped to second place by higher Treasury yields. Utilities (XLU -0.71%) and Energy (XLE -3.06%) were the only two declining sectors.
The biggest economic news was Brent Oil prices falling -12.79%, pulling back to near $110. The price decline came after the United Arab Emirates supported increasing production.
Not all the optimism came from Oil prices receding. The JOLTs Job openings report showed more demand than expected for employees. There were 11.263 million openings in January compared to the forecast of 10.925 million.
The US Dollar index (DXY) fell back by -1.09% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose and the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved upward, opposite Treasury prices as investors show a bit more confidence in corporations. Silver and Gold fell back from recent highs.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.886. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range but inched toward Neutral.
All big six mega-caps gained for the day with Nvidia (NVDA) rising by +6.97% to lead the list. Only Alphabet (GOOG) regained its 21d EMA line, climbing +4.97% today.
ASML Holding (ASML) was at the top of the broader mega-cap list, gaining +8.43%. Only a handful of mega-caps declined with the bottom three being oil companies. Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the worst decline, falling by -5.68%.
All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. MongoDB (MDB) surprised investors with a great earnings beat and soared +18.58%. Three other stocks, DataDog (DDOG), NIO Inc. (NIO), and Block (SQ) advanced more than 10%. SolarEdge (SEDG) and Chewy (CHWY) were the only two stocks to decline but only fell by -0.59% and -0.93% respectively.
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Looking ahead
Consumer Price Index data for February will be released on Thursday morning before the market opens. The numbers will give another look into how bad inflation is month-over-month and year-over-year. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
Earnings reports for tomorrow include Oracle (ORCL), JD.com (JD), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN).
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Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq opened above 13,000 and moved its way back toward the 21d EMA.
If the one-day trend continues, expect a +1.45% gain for Thursday.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, it would mean a -1.82% decline.
The five-day trend line points to a -3.55% decline.
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Wrap-up
Some positive news on oil production helped markets across commodities, currencies, bonds, and equities all reverse from their recent moves. Overall the data shows an optimistic tone for investors. However, nothing is ever easy and we're likely to continue to see volatility before consistent gains return to stocks.
More importantly, we hope for an end to the loss of lives in Ukraine. Stop the war.
The expectation for the market tomorrow is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
Notes
Ideas always welcome in the comments. Errors will be amended as comments on TradingView or corrected inline in my blog.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wednesday, March 9, 2022
Facts: +3.59%, Volume lower, Closing Range: 83%, Body: 54% Green
Good: Higher high, higher low, great closing range
Bad: Lower volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, Higher low
Candle: Half body in middle of visible upper and lower wicks
Advance/Decline: 3.09, three advancing for every declining stock
Indexes: SPX (+2.57%), DJI (+2.00%), RUT (+2.71%), VIX (-7.63%)
Sector List: Technology (XLK +3.96%) and Financials (XLF +3.67%) at the top. Utilities (XLU -0.71%) and Energy (XLE -3.06%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
Investors showed a day of bullish optimism as oil prices found a top and receded sharply. The volatility is not likely over, but it's good to see support coming back into equity indexes.
The Nasdaq gained +3.59% today. Volume was lower than the previous day but higher than the 50d average volume. The candle has a 54% green body that sits in the middle of visible upper and lower wicks. The lower wick is a bit longer, forming just after an open significantly higher than yesterday's close. The closing range was great at 84%, leaving behind a small upper wick formed in the late afternoon. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock.
The tech-heavy Nasdaq had the best gain for the day. Small-caps came next with a +2.71% advance for the Russell 2000 (RUT). The S&P 500 (SPX) climbed by +2.57%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI) finished with a +2.00% gain despite being held back by big oil declines. The VIX Volatility Index receded -7.63%, although it still remains elevated.
Nine of the eleven S&P 500 sectors advanced. Technology (XLK +3.96%) and Financials (XLF +3.67%) were at the top of the sector list. The Financials sector was helped to second place by higher Treasury yields. Utilities (XLU -0.71%) and Energy (XLE -3.06%) were the only two declining sectors.
The biggest economic news was Brent Oil prices falling -12.79%, pulling back to near $110. The price decline came after the United Arab Emirates supported increasing production.
Not all the optimism came from Oil prices receding. The JOLTs Job openings report showed more demand than expected for employees. There were 11.263 million openings in January compared to the forecast of 10.925 million.
The US Dollar index (DXY) fell back by -1.09% today. US 30y, 10y, and 2y Treasury Yields all rose and the gap between long-term and short-term yields widened. High Yield (HYG) and Investment Grade (LQD) Corporate Bond prices moved upward, opposite Treasury prices as investors show a bit more confidence in corporations. Silver and Gold fell back from recent highs.
The put/call ratio (PCCE) rose to 0.886. The CNN Fear & Greed index is in the Extreme Fear range but inched toward Neutral.
All big six mega-caps gained for the day with Nvidia (NVDA) rising by +6.97% to lead the list. Only Alphabet (GOOG) regained its 21d EMA line, climbing +4.97% today.
ASML Holding (ASML) was at the top of the broader mega-cap list, gaining +8.43%. Only a handful of mega-caps declined with the bottom three being oil companies. Exxon Mobil (XOM) had the worst decline, falling by -5.68%.
All but two stocks in the Daily Update Growth List gained today. MongoDB (MDB) surprised investors with a great earnings beat and soared +18.58%. Three other stocks, DataDog (DDOG), NIO Inc. (NIO), and Block (SQ) advanced more than 10%. SolarEdge (SEDG) and Chewy (CHWY) were the only two stocks to decline but only fell by -0.59% and -0.93% respectively.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
Consumer Price Index data for February will be released on Thursday morning before the market opens. The numbers will give another look into how bad inflation is month-over-month and year-over-year. We will also get the weekly Initial Jobless Claims.
Earnings reports for tomorrow include Oracle (ORCL), JD.com (JD), and Rivian Automotive (RIVN).
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support, and Resistance
The Nasdaq opened above 13,000 and moved its way back toward the 21d EMA.
If the one-day trend continues, expect a +1.45% gain for Thursday.
If the index returns to the trend line from the 2/10 high, it would mean a -1.82% decline.
The five-day trend line points to a -3.55% decline.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
Some positive news on oil production helped markets across commodities, currencies, bonds, and equities all reverse from their recent moves. Overall the data shows an optimistic tone for investors. However, nothing is ever easy and we're likely to continue to see volatility before consistent gains return to stocks.
More importantly, we hope for an end to the loss of lives in Ukraine. Stop the war.
The expectation for the market tomorrow is Sideways or Higher.
Stay healthy and trade safe!
