OPENING: IYR DEC 23RD 68/75/75/80 IRON FLY
I had intended to put on a similar setup last week, but got distracted by something else ... . Implied volatility rank remains high here, even though IYR's background implied volatility isn't that great.
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: $343/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $357/contract
Break Evens: 71.57/78.43
Notes: The probability of profit metric on these always seems to suck hard (45-50%). The trade off between this and an iron condor (which has a higher probability of profit) is greater premium at the door, so a better max profit/loss ratio. This is basically a 1-1 setup; most iron condors I do are 1-2.
Look to manage at 25% max profit as you would a short straddle ... .
Metrics:
Probability of Profit: 44%
Max Profit: $343/contract
Max Loss/Buying Power Effect: $357/contract
Break Evens: 71.57/78.43
Notes: The probability of profit metric on these always seems to suck hard (45-50%). The trade off between this and an iron condor (which has a higher probability of profit) is greater premium at the door, so a better max profit/loss ratio. This is basically a 1-1 setup; most iron condors I do are 1-2.
Look to manage at 25% max profit as you would a short straddle ... .
Trade closed manually:
Taking profit here a little early ... . Covering for a 2.87 db; in for a 3.43 credit, out for 2.87, $50 net profit after fees and commissions.
