Johnson & Johnson | Fundamental Analysis | LONG SETUP ⚡️

For much of the previous decade, the stock of diversified healthcare behemoth Johnson & Johnson has consistently delivered market returns (if you count dividends as part of total return on equity). Investors flocked to this company because of its solid balance sheet, its status as a dividend aristocrat, and its unique ability to consistently bring new blockbuster pharmaceutical products to market in a timely manner.

Since the beginning of this decade, however, J&J stock has largely underperformed the broader markets. The stock has lost its luster recently because of the baby powder litigation, the lack of enthusiasm among investors for the $30 billion acquisition of Actelion, the maker of pulmonary arterial hypertension drugs, its high valuation, and the relatively low sales of its COVID-19 vaccine.

Will J&J stock be able to return to its previous market successes or should investors move to a more favorable environment? Here's a look at both sides of the question.

1. J&J may be one of the top stocks in healthcare today, but this $444 billion titan is about to undergo some major changes that could lead to a decline in its performance.

According to a Nov. 12 announcement, the company plans to split into two businesses over the next 24 months. One of the new businesses will focus on consumer health products and the other on the development and commercialization of pharmaceuticals and medical devices. The transition will be one of the largest in the company's 135-year history, and it will entail reshuffles in all areas, including senior management.

This means that serious risks loom on the horizon that shareholders have not yet had to deal with. Splitting the business in two may turn out for the best, but it's important to remember that things haven't been going in the right direction for some time. Over the past five years, quarterly revenue has grown by only 28.9 percent, while quarterly profit margins have fallen by 25.4 percent. Similarly, quarterly net income is down 3.85% and quarterly free cash flow (FCF) is down more than 19% over the same period. There is no guarantee that the separation will solve these problems.

In addition to the uncertainties associated with the separation, the company also faces new hurdles regarding revenue from the coronavirus vaccine, which is expected to bring in $2.5 billion in 2021. On Dec. 16, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention issued a recommendation that the company's vaccine should not be used if vaccines from competitors such as Pfizer are available. The recommendation comes amid ongoing concerns about the J&J vaccine's poor efficacy and its ability to cause rare and life-threatening complications in some people.

Therefore, this is a particularly risky time to invest in J&J stock. Time will tell if the company can gracefully survive its breakup.

2. Wall Street has not been particularly receptive to J&J's proposed separation and for good reason. After all, the company's health care division contains several iconic brands, such as Benadryl and Tylenol, which are proven cash cows. Wall Street's fears about this separation, however, may have been exaggerated. As evidence, Pfizer recently went through a slimming process, separating its legacy products business without any adverse consequences.

And J&J, for its part, seems more than capable of pulling off the same maneuver without any major hitches. This is evidenced by a wide range of fast-growing pharmaceutical products, such as the multiple myeloma drug Darzalex, the immune-mediated inflammatory disease drug Stelara, and the plaque psoriasis drug Tremfya.

It was these three key products that drove the company's pharmaceutical segment in the third quarter of 2021, up 13.8% from a year ago, excluding acquisitions and sales. Moreover, J&J is one of the best in the business at launching new pharmaceutical products for areas with large unmet medical needs.

In fact, this separation should allow the company's pharmaceutical division to shine from a top-line perspective. And that's a big plus for growth-oriented investors.

Income investors may be concerned about the potential impact on the company's much-desired dividend. Fortunately, J&J management has already said that future dividend payments should remain about the same as the current quarterly distribution after the split.

Overall, J&J stock seems poised to turn into a top play for growth and earnings after the upcoming split.