South Africa and the World

Main ideas:

The US and South African elections in 2024: The outcome of the elections in both countries will have long-term and pervasive impacts on the markets, especially if Biden wins in the US and Zuma runs again in South Africa.12
The US economy and the war in Gaza: The US economy is booming, but inflation and interest rates are higher than expected. The war in Gaza has hurt Biden's popularity and he is trying to negotiate a peace settlement with the help of the CIA.34
The Chinese economy and the Shanghai stock exchange: The Chinese economy has been struggling for the past three years, mainly due to the property sector bubble and the collapse of Evergrande. The Shanghai stock exchange has been in a downward trend, but the government has been intervening to support the market.56
The war in Ukraine and the role of NATO: The war in Ukraine is a proxy war between Russia and NATO, and it has resulted in a huge loss of lives and humanitarian crisis. NATO has been supplying weapons and aid to Ukraine, but has not yet committed troops on the ground. Putin is fighting for his survival and may resort to desperate measures.78
The South African economy and the coming election: The South African economy has been affected by load shedding, low savings rate, poor service delivery, and corruption. The coming election will be influenced by the ANC's performance, the rise of Mkhonto we Sizwe, and the return of Zuma to politics.910
Some commodities and companies to watch: The price of platinum group metals has declined by one-third this year, but may recover as the commodity cycle turns. The price of gold has also been falling, but may be at a cycle top. Bitcoin has been volatile and faces regulatory challenges. Some companies that are worth considering are Barloworld, Sibanye, and Purple Capital.1112