vlad.adrian
Short

Coffee - Preparing for a downtrend

ICEUSA:KC1!   Coffee
275 2 6
I believe that the weekly chart of coffee             is showing a start of a downtrend. Entering a trade here would mean placing a stop above 220, and that is way too much risk. The daily chart looks bearish too, but again, the risk reward is unfavorable. There is a bit more room to the upside, but I believe this chart will eventually break.

The histogram is still rising, and the divergence isn't confirmed yet, but it will be confirmed pretty soon. MACD lines also are in a bearish divergence. The Force index shows another nasty bearish divergence. Now look at the hole screen. On the left side, we have an uptrend. Look at the Weis Wave, it is mostly green with big surges of volume . Mid October bearish volume became bigger, flashing the warning light. Look how after that, bearish volume starts getting bigger and bigger. A downtrend started, with heavy waves of selling. At the beginning of 2014, the first warning signal came, with two consecutive high waves of bullish volume . In February, volume surged. In April, volume diminished but that's not a signal on its own, it is normal for volume to diminish, but look what came in May. That is a bearish change in behavior, and it is likely to see the downtrend from 2011 continue. Right now, I think we are in the last rally, retesting the 200 level. Expect lower prices.

juanjollovera
2 years ago
What about this? http://www.agrimoney.com/news/coffee-to-see-protracted-bull-run-record-prices--7335.html
Still bearish?
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vlad.adrian PRO juanjollovera
2 years ago
Whenever you see a bullish report on a stock, stock market or commodity, it's time to get bearish. I know you'll say I'm an idiot, but that is the way it goes, and there are two reasons for that. One is that reporters don't know any better, and they will publish an article when a trend has already been going on for some time, because they were afraid to call a trend at the start of it (afraid they might be wrong and that will not turn out as a trend). Second reason is that these articles get planted by the smart money. Smart money is called smart money for one simple reason, they are some very smart people. Besides their natural intelligence, they have plenty resources and access to all the information they want. Smart money sold during that correction between April and July, and that is why the volume is so big. That article makes me more bearish.
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