charles.fletcher.us

Please be careful with this one if you are an intraday trader

KRAKEN:LINKUSD   Chainlink
I happened to notice quite a few mentions of $LINK in my #fintwit feed. I'd never looked at it as I'm not a crypto devotee. Aside from the high probability short term move this isn't my market of choice, so take this with more than a few grains of salt.

However, with very little else in the way of information flow classic TA is pretty instructive as to probabilities for directional price movement. A lot of the $LINK mentions were celebrating short term scalps, which is fair game for all. I just want to remind those who often focus on intra-day or very short term price movements that the longer term view often gives more reliable signals.

So the pattern is less than ideal to be sure.

  • Price is diverging from both volume and RSI trend. These divergences can often signal a reversal risk
  • Price is a smidge over a consistent resistance trendline, and prior reversals have been rather swift and painful.
  • Taking a midpoint, one could expect to see a drawdown in the 75-80% range

It could be that this time $LINK breaks through resistance and takes off enormously. I would just caution that risk is high so a risk management strategy would be critical for near-term trades.
Comment:
Spotted an error in the above: "It could be that"

in the last statement should read:

"there is absolutely no doubt that".

Good illustration, it doesn't always play out the way you think. If you were YOLOing before I'm sure you're happy with the weekend action. Enjoy!

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