Luna gathered up the gumption to retest the $91 s/r yesterday after the decisive break to the downside on 3/25 but just couldn't hold it. Last few attempts showed declining volume and it looks like we're riding the wave back down currently.
Big bearish candle after second failed breakout (red arrow.) Not quite "engulfing" but it certainly makes a statement.
Looks like short term we're riding a channel. I use these as a weak indicator. Breakouts with a decisive close suggest a change in trend, but other factors such as overall trend movement and historic horizontal support/resistances carry a lot more weight for me.
On this short term chart, MACD did flip positive yesterday but is trending back down. RSI crept up to just below 50 and is also swinging back down.
Overall forecast remains the same. I think we could dance around in this zone a bit longer but if/when we break below 87 it could be a fairly dramatic move down since volumes this year are relatively thin in the 50-87 range so we might have trouble finding a new support level in there.
In terms of big picture trends, we still haven't triggered any major indicators on the 3d chart but we're getting close:
Watching for RSI < 50, negative MACD histo, and a drop below the 18 SMA. All are trending in a negative direction.
Lastly, bollinger bands (12 day) are getting pretty tight which can be indicative of a big move coming.
Nothing is written in stone yet but the failed retest of 91 with overall trends looking the way they do makes me think we're going down before up.
Big bearish candle after second failed breakout (red arrow.) Not quite "engulfing" but it certainly makes a statement.
Looks like short term we're riding a channel. I use these as a weak indicator. Breakouts with a decisive close suggest a change in trend, but other factors such as overall trend movement and historic horizontal support/resistances carry a lot more weight for me.
On this short term chart, MACD did flip positive yesterday but is trending back down. RSI crept up to just below 50 and is also swinging back down.
Overall forecast remains the same. I think we could dance around in this zone a bit longer but if/when we break below 87 it could be a fairly dramatic move down since volumes this year are relatively thin in the 50-87 range so we might have trouble finding a new support level in there.
In terms of big picture trends, we still haven't triggered any major indicators on the 3d chart but we're getting close:
Watching for RSI < 50, negative MACD histo, and a drop below the 18 SMA. All are trending in a negative direction.
Lastly, bollinger bands (12 day) are getting pretty tight which can be indicative of a big move coming.
Nothing is written in stone yet but the failed retest of 91 with overall trends looking the way they do makes me think we're going down before up.
