There are quite some Luna maximalists in here, chanting "Such fundamentals, very moon!" since the start of the run up, but unfortunately no asset escapes the laws of the market. Citing an iconic Japanese trader: "people trade according to market sentiment rather than fundamentals". In our case, this means that if bitcoin breaks down and panic starts, people will want to protect their money regardless of the fundamentals.
I am not a fan of drawing lines that the price action would follow, since I just don't like to predict a certain target at a certain time. If arrows on my chart there are, it's either the prolongation of a known theoretical schematic (like Wyckoff accumulation/distribution), or just to roughly convey the direction the price action could take when it's reasonable to guess it. Anyway, finally getting to the point: I think Luna could be undergoing Wyckoff distribution (in phase B at the moment), after a powerful run up, I have easily identified a couple of steps of the distribution schematic (PSY: preliminary supply, BC: buying climax, SOW weakness, and UT upthrust so far). I choose to post a Wyckoff idea only if I've been able to easily identify those steps, and that they are well placed according to the schematic which seems to be the case here. So, as you've understood, I am not saying the price will follow those lines at all. It will certainly go down at some point, although it could be faster than what I've drawn on the chart.
The only thing you have to do is just keep track of the pa and compare it to that schematic because the longer it acts according to it (i.e., if it ends up taking one of the two routes I've drawn utad or lpsy), the more the outcome will be predictable, and so, tradeable. There is no magic trade technique I believe. Just be ready to spot when the ultimate weakness in the price action happens before it goes down.
I am not a fan of drawing lines that the price action would follow, since I just don't like to predict a certain target at a certain time. If arrows on my chart there are, it's either the prolongation of a known theoretical schematic (like Wyckoff accumulation/distribution), or just to roughly convey the direction the price action could take when it's reasonable to guess it. Anyway, finally getting to the point: I think Luna could be undergoing Wyckoff distribution (in phase B at the moment), after a powerful run up, I have easily identified a couple of steps of the distribution schematic (PSY: preliminary supply, BC: buying climax, SOW weakness, and UT upthrust so far). I choose to post a Wyckoff idea only if I've been able to easily identify those steps, and that they are well placed according to the schematic which seems to be the case here. So, as you've understood, I am not saying the price will follow those lines at all. It will certainly go down at some point, although it could be faster than what I've drawn on the chart.
The only thing you have to do is just keep track of the pa and compare it to that schematic because the longer it acts according to it (i.e., if it ends up taking one of the two routes I've drawn utad or lpsy), the more the outcome will be predictable, and so, tradeable. There is no magic trade technique I believe. Just be ready to spot when the ultimate weakness in the price action happens before it goes down.
Comment:
The horizontal lines on the chart are Fib retracement levels of the previous ATH of Luna. (retracement goes from level0= ath to level1= start of the original impulse of the previous ATH run at $38 last November)