Ali-Foreman of the 21st century: Winnie the pooh vs the richest
Chinese regulatory crackdown is an exceptionally interesting phenomenon. Recently it got even more interesting as Xi Jinping, probably expecting the necessity of Evergrande bailout, suggested smoothing excessive incomes. Surprising? No. Some growth of populism has been seen in General Secretary’s actions for at least a year.
My prediction for upcoming months is simple: every time something good “happens” to Evergrande, the Communist Party will throw a punch at the wealthiest to show how much they regard the Chinese underpaid and overworked society. What does it mean for the European luxuries leader? In 2020, 34% of its revenues came from Asia excluding Japan (unsurprisingly, the majority of this 34% can be attributed to China). Adding the disappointing Chinese economic data to our equation, a decrease or LVMH’s revenues from Asia seems to be inevitable. Given that luxury goods are trading at a huge premium (that I don’t think I can justify) over the MSCI Europe, a short position on the industry leader looks very appealing.
Just before posting this idea, I checked the analysts’ consensus on LVMH. Apparently, the vast majority of them are optimistic. Well, I am not.
My prediction for upcoming months is simple: every time something good “happens” to Evergrande, the Communist Party will throw a punch at the wealthiest to show how much they regard the Chinese underpaid and overworked society. What does it mean for the European luxuries leader? In 2020, 34% of its revenues came from Asia excluding Japan (unsurprisingly, the majority of this 34% can be attributed to China). Adding the disappointing Chinese economic data to our equation, a decrease or LVMH’s revenues from Asia seems to be inevitable. Given that luxury goods are trading at a huge premium (that I don’t think I can justify) over the MSCI Europe, a short position on the industry leader looks very appealing.
Just before posting this idea, I checked the analysts’ consensus on LVMH. Apparently, the vast majority of them are optimistic. Well, I am not.