Trend Analysis

The trend is your friend. The rainbow average is your guidance angel. If the price is trading above the rainbow, the star is rising. No chart can predict the price direction so buy and sell at your own risk as market conditions can change at anytime without warning.
Comment: The prices of gold, steel, copper, crude oil, recycle paper all going up at the same time are reading on one same storybook which is Inflation. Based on macro economy theory, with the increase of money supply (printing paper money) by the Central Banks worldwide , interest rate will go down and that will fire up the inflation rate. Next year we will witness an odd phenomenon known as stagflation (high inflation, high unemployment rate, low economy growth). Real estate properties normally is the best hedge against inflationary pressure and cash rich investors will convert their cash holding for landed properties and recently we have witnessed few prime properties changed hand in KL prime area are good telling sign that smart money have started to sense the inflationary trend. The outlook for our market next year is pointing to prosperity year as crude oil price will propel local currency higher and attract more inflow of hot easy money from US and that will help to fuel and pump our stock market bull run to artificially create the wealth effect.
Comment: If our memory is old enough, we can sense that current play script looks familiar. Actually it is a reply of the year of 2008 when we have China's most imaginative Olympic Game and then followed by the collapse of Lehman Brothers and subprime crisis. FED came to the scene and rescued the stock market by pumping hot money into the banking system and that created the biggest oil bubble in human history. We will see the same theme play in YEAR 2021 after the Covid19 crisis and the lost year of 2020. FED and other world's largest central banks this time have created another financial bubble many time the scale and size of last oil bubble and this bubble is the biggest in human history and it will pop on year around 2023 to 2024.
Comment: FED not only is the most powerful central bank but also the biggest bubble machine in the world. Their job is to ensure American Bubble can continue to expand forever. After the crash of dotcom bubble (1995 - 2000) they engineered another property subprime bubble and then followed by oil bubble. FED will not play the same bubble twice. When the oil bubble crashed to negative price in 2020 they created another new bubble called RE and that has skyrocketed Tesla's share price to the moon. Mahsing is late for the glove supernormal cycle and it is highly unlikely they can break-even the capital investment but they have the strong financial muscle to test the hot water. Mahsing is a super brand in property market but entering glove market is a totally different story as no one care whether it is produced by Topglove or Mahglove unlike cosmetic business. It would be more compatible with Mahsing's existing property business and their landbank if they divest the capital investment to catch the train of RE Super Cycle as RE will reinvent the future and create a better living world with low carbon footprint. TNB will have to buy more and more RE as worldwide big banks and investment funds (even our own EPF one day maybe will do the same) will avoid energy company (including those IPP) that is powered by dirty coal and fossil fuels.


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