MAR Continuation of Long Term Uptrend
MAR looking for continuation of the uptrend after tagging the weekly trigger.
Stage 1 of this trade is looking for a break of daily trigger and attempt at PT1 ($244: Yearly R1, Quarterly breakdown) within the next 1-2 weeks. Using monthly EXP (6/14).
Stage 2std would be a break and successful retest of daily (around $240). Probably wont roll contracts, instead doing a calendar spread and move up stops on 6/14s
Stage 2alt is a break above PT1 and a retest. Possible to happen within 10 sessions, will exit and roll EXP if it takes longer than ~10 sessions and structure is still valid
Stage 3 is a move higher from 244, looking to target 254. Will cover entire original if we get Stage 2std and look to PT3 ($260-$262) with longer dated contracts. If Stage 2alt, will cover half at PT2 and fully exit PT3
Stops are under $231 (around -3% spot)
Bullish:
- Consolidation at the yearly breakout level ($234) and above quarterly S1
- Holding weekly trigger (long term uptrend)
- Rounded bottom formation possible
- Holding earnings VWAP
Bearish:
- Under daily trigger (short term bearish trend)
- Bear flag on weekly chart
- Broke below and rejected quarterly breakdown (pre-earnings)
Stage 1 of this trade is looking for a break of daily trigger and attempt at PT1 ($244: Yearly R1, Quarterly breakdown) within the next 1-2 weeks. Using monthly EXP (6/14).
Stage 2std would be a break and successful retest of daily (around $240). Probably wont roll contracts, instead doing a calendar spread and move up stops on 6/14s
Stage 2alt is a break above PT1 and a retest. Possible to happen within 10 sessions, will exit and roll EXP if it takes longer than ~10 sessions and structure is still valid
Stage 3 is a move higher from 244, looking to target 254. Will cover entire original if we get Stage 2std and look to PT3 ($260-$262) with longer dated contracts. If Stage 2alt, will cover half at PT2 and fully exit PT3
Stops are under $231 (around -3% spot)
Bullish:
- Consolidation at the yearly breakout level ($234) and above quarterly S1
- Holding weekly trigger (long term uptrend)
- Rounded bottom formation possible
- Holding earnings VWAP
Bearish:
- Under daily trigger (short term bearish trend)
- Bear flag on weekly chart
- Broke below and rejected quarterly breakdown (pre-earnings)
Comment:
Forgot to add, stops will get moved up to 235 area once either Stage 2s are completed. Stage 3, stops probably at 240.