dRends35

MARA - Deploy The Lifeboats πŸ˜±πŸ™€β—β—

Short
dRends35 Updated   
BATS:MARA   Marathon Digital Holdings, Inc.
Before posting this I did check through the first page of most recent and most popular threads on MARA and it was very interesting to see that every one of them is "LONG" MARA.

So this is a contrarian thread.

And why is that?

Well aside from the skill it takes to make a correct bearish call mid bull market; MARA is a fanboy hype stock.

Most of the posts are based in "technicals" funded by hope .

Hope is not a trading strategy.

Its very interesting because the no.1 Bitcoin miner has looked ugly for quite a while and there have been multi-time frame bearish divergences.

These days TradingView is even kind enough to highlight some of those divergences, but yet apparently no publishers have noticed them.


Yet again they are all too busy looking at the stars ✨.

The blind leading the blind.

Bitcoin slumped today and altcoins took quite a hit.

But MARA was already rolling down the hill for some time and continued today.

So the question; if MARA is plunging while Bitcoin is still yet to reach a conclusive top...

Where will it be if/when Bitcoin does turn bearish ❔

Where will it be at the end of a Bitcoin correction ❓

Probably not all the way up here.

I called this as a weak 1:0.786 three wave correction when MARA was up @$21 back on March 24th.


And so we'll see what how Bitcoin fairs over the weekend.

But I have deep targets for MARA.

Not advice.
Comment:
Bitcoin having a VERY bearish weekend.

Big discounts coming for MARA.

You heard it here first...

Even though I initially made this call 3 weeks ago as you can see dated in the chart above πŸ‘€.

But all of TradingView was sleeping on this one.

Here's my bearish thread amongst all the bullish threads.

Comment:
Hit the "Boost" button if you like my content and more TV'ers will see it - thanks πŸ‘.
Comment:
Bitcoin is holding on for now but MARA is falling away and in now in terrible shape; down another 6% today.

And remember that this bearish price action is happening with Bitcoin not yet making a lower low.

Imagine what price action it may see whenever Bitcoin does have a significant correction.

It could get very ugly for hodlers...

It could be a total washout.

But I'll see what develops and go from there.

If Bitcoin moves on up then MARA will likely bounce also, but it will probably be a weak bounce to then carry on down.

If you're investing based on beliefs but you do not have real skill in the chart, then good chance you're going to lose your money or at the very least be in considerable pain for quite a while; especially if you're buying ultra high volatility stocks such as MARA.

The problem with trading on beliefs is that you have no system to sound the alarm and tell you that something is wrong and it leads to heavy losses.

My targets on the chart above are a long way off for now, but it does look like this trend may have long legs and at least get back to the previous low @ $8.

However I think more likely it will get back to the first fib band @ $4.5.

Or perhaps it could even get down to that ultra deep $1.27. Obviously thats a very long way down, but never say never with ultra wild names such as this...

We'll know more whenever Bitcoin does have a correction.

Whichever it is, it is not looking good for MARA here and longs are getting smashed.

Down the road, my process of finding the actual low in this lucrative stock will perhaps be private to begin with but I will at some point along the way share with TradingView as I did here.

Comment:
We're at a critical juncture now where Bitcoin is bouncing and as always we look to see where there is strength / weakness.

In terms of Wyckoff, MARA is now @ SOW "Sign of Weakness" support structure.

If it breaks down from here then that is when the more impulsive Mark Down phase of the cycle begins; according to Wyckoff.

If MARA looks weak as Bitcoin bounces then it is toast, and probably a reasonable short though I won't be taking it.

Let's see how this area goes🀨.

Comment:
A bounce at critical support; SOW counts for nothing other than the market holding out an olive branch for longs to make an exit with a morsel of dignity.

The immediate bounce will more likely be caused by shorts covering their position which drives a liability and forces more shorts to exit above.

This is called an automatic rally; where price increases as traders leave the market.

And the uptick in price fools longs into thinking that the wave has real impetus and they enter positions only to get very trapped when it rolls over.

How high can an automatic rally go in a volatile stock ?

Who knows really but I'll be looking for bearish ascending fractals and I may even open a small short simply because the stock markets look so bearish but it would need to parallel with Bitcoin.

I am now partially short overbought stocks currently btw; indexes PLTR APH, probably others next week, though there are some good stocks holding on in deep positions. Those that are hanging on will likely have a bull market whenever the correction is over.

Btw, if you are super confident of MARA's progress and think its the best thing since sliced bread, but you're not aware that the Nasdaq that MARA is within, just closed one of the largest weekly bearish momentum candles EVER, then stop trading.

If that's you then go away and re-think what you are doing because you are not observing critical detail and you're going to get rekt.

Comment:
You might read see a thread like this and assume it must be written by a confused boomer that doesn't understand your crypto secrets....

But a quick "heads up" I was long Bitcoin, Bitcoin miners, altcoins etc since January 2023 when many of you would have been soaking up the bearish vibes; too confused and scared to buy; perhaps listening to Jerome the bear talk up recessions and rate hikes etc.

And thats how it works in dumb money club.

You're always late but you dont realise it.

Late to enter.

Late to leave.

You don't realise you're in it.

But its a revolving door.

At the start you have money and what you think is a great idea.

And you tell yourself you're a smart guy but in your gut you know you haven't really put much time in.

Then you arrive late because you can't follow market dynamic but think you're early and you pass through the revolving door and put your money into the market.

At some point later you realise that your great idea was incorrect somehow and you take what little remains of your money and return back through the revolving door.

Then you go away until you have another "great idea" and the cycle repeats.

That is the dumb money revolving door.

What I am writing is meant to be provocative.

But it could also wake you up.

Because it is a psychological trap.

And once you've woken up to the trap then you can begin to really apply yourself.

Or leave and decide this isn't for you.

But if you haven't done the technical work and you can't hear sirens then you're going to be part of revolving door club.

Anyhow, here are yet more bearish sirens for you to consider.

This is the week chart with the blue 500 week moving average, the red 200 week MA and the green 50 week MA.


Notice the "S" above the peaks.

"S" is for "Shakeout."

These are all shakeout reversal patterns where price movers push up above the moving average where higher liquidity is.

They trigger a bunch of stop losses etc, then they collapse price back down (or vice versa) to further liquidate overleveraged traders etc

This is how they make profit.

Notice what happened twice already when price pushed up through the 200MA:

It had a hard slump back down.

On this occasion though it has risen above the 200MA and has twice breached above the very significant high time frame 500MA.

But it couldn't hold and within the slightly higher high; printed a bearish Shooting Star candle before collapsing back down.

So if you understand shakeouts, liquidity landmarks + candles; this is all very bearish and there will be a lot of resistance above following that double failure.

Last week's price tested the 50 week MA.

I think that if/when it slumps below that, it may be a real washout.

But thats somewhat speculative so we'll see.

I certainly wouldn't want to be long MARA here.
Comment:
None of this is actual advise btw, its just my opinion. Make a fortune, lose you shirt, or go fishing, its all on you.

I'm fishing right now with MARA, perhaps i'll get a very deep buy one day.
Comment:
What I find funny is how willing "traders" are to throw their hard earned cash around but yet are unwilling to invest in educating themselves in market dynamic.

Pure greed, laziness and stupidity - am I right?

Ok, perhaps that is a bit harsh... but is it fair?

Without that investment in learning; what happens is you become obsessed with short term price action as your trades go on journeys.

Every little bump is cheered.

Every small slump is mourned.

And the irony is that by being unwilling to invest your brain into what you needed to know, you instead sentence your emotions to go on an endless rollercoaster journey of stressful ups and downs.

Does this sound familiar to you ?

The really funny part is that the critical detail here is drawn on for you in BIG RED WRITING;

"BEAR"

- courtesy of TradingView.

They did the work for you.

And to understand the significance of that bearish RSI is not high level TA.

MARA bounced today as I said it could do; it is a volatile stock.

But that bearish divergence remains unresolved.
Comment:
MARA is currently hitting the Demand Line and coincidentally the 0.382 retracement both at the same time.

0.382 is a common reversal ratio in retracement of strong trends.

And the Demand Line will have plenty of resistance.

So this is the first real test of this uptrend.

Who knows what exactly will happen on a minute by minute time frame here and there could be plenty of shakeout shenanigans.

These time frames are only for heroes and computers to trade in.

All I am saying is that this is the first area of high resistance and that higher time frame bullish divergence will resolve and it will likely get nasty down the road.

Longs driven by greed and emotion will have seen the 12% uptick yesterday and will no doubt be pounding the buy button here.


Comment:
Bearish divergence*
Comment:
As I suggested the Demand Line and 0.382 were critical resistance.

Today MARA has gapped down and Bitcoin is looking very weak.

As I suggested on April 19th, it looks like the bounce may have been an automatic short covering rally from Wyckoff SOW Support.

And as I said, this will fool longs into believing it is a a genuine rally has begun.

Some of you that disproved of this thread will have been pounding the buy button in this area thinking that the bottom was in.

And thats quite funny really.

Because what I'm describing here is not rocket science.

But if you're too lazy to learn it and you think you can get rich on flimsy "fundamentals" then welcome to revolving door club.

Its not impossible that Bitcoin could bounce as it hasn't fully broken down.

And if that did happen then MARA could easily recover and even print a higher high than that of the Demand Line.

But even if that happened it probably wouldn't make any difference in the end.

It would just be more short term liquidity games before the big flush.

We haven't quite reached the freak out phase yet.

When that happens we may see some very impulsive downside.

Comment:
MARA has only twice before printed bearish RSI divergence on the week chart.

The first time it went on to lose 99.7%.

The second; it lost 94.6%.

Let that sink in...

Comment:
Further TA on Bitcoin and S&P on my ideas page btw πŸ‘
Comment:
BIG bounce today and MARA is back up to the Demand Line in a hurry!!!

To understand this analysis you have to know where the critical detail is.

And with MARA it is second downtrend.

If you notice; it entirely engulfs the previous downtrend with impulsive action.

And that is very bearish.

Also the divergence as described.

In a volatile stock, a Wyckoff Distribution can be very bouncy.

And there could be a very big bounce here.

But in the end it doesn't make any difference to the critical detail which in this instance is already in the past.

If Bitcoin did also go through a distribution with a higher high then MARA could push on up here.

But from the highest time frame perspective it makes no difference.

I'm not in the business of finding perfect accuracy in short term noise after my trades are closed.

Nor do I intend to.

I trade the high time frame pivots.

And the great trades in Bitcoin miners were in early 2023 when most fanboys were sleeping.

Those that arrived late are now pounding the buy button so they can get the greedy levels of exposure they were previously hoping for.

No awareness of market dynamic.

No consideration of risk management.

And by arriving late and being greedy thats where they/you get very trapped.

Earnings coming up on Thursday - might be a whipsawing peak perhaps.

But its all irrelevant really, I'm just speculating to make content.

My trading focus is elsewhere currently.

And this is how it goes.

At the moment you have maximum interest; the gravy train is already departing to somewhere else...

These short term areas are traded only by algos, heroes and the blind.

Comment:
This is AMZN last cycle.

Notice the bearish weekly RSI divergences came very early.

And there were many bounces.

And it made higher highs.

But in the end it made no significant bullish discovery and went on to lose 54% from where those divergences printed.

And thats AMZN - a top tier tech stock.

Not a wild and high volatility Bitcoin Miner.

Dont forget MARA has some risk of bankruptcy that could also impact price if things get unpleasant, which they probably will.

Comment:
Crypto was so sleepy in 2023 - back when everyone knew that it was too stupid to be long any risk-on assets courtesy of FED narratives, rate hikes, yield curves, recession looming, war etc.

But actually that was the great time to buy.

Now here we are in May 2024 and you'd have to be an idiot to be bearish.

Post halving; here we are and the herd just know this is a sure thing.

They've filled their bags to the brim and ready for riches.

They cannot imagine losing.

And that makes them vulnerable.

Perhaps too many traders know of this "sure thing" this time around.

And the market movers changed the script.

But the herd didn't get the memo.

Getting some troll comments now; it reminds me of 2021 when all the longs we're pounding the table for free lunch lambos.

And now, just like then; suddenly the crypto space is full of ultra confident buyers that were entirely asleep last year.

Bitcoin having a bounce today so perhaps this will take a while to play out.

A lot will probably depend on how long indexes hold.

If indexes dump again then Bitcoin having already established that relationship will likely dump also.

I get my calls in the end.

And i'll be looking for BIG discounts down the road that most of you cannot imagine being feasibile.

When that time comes remember that I dont always post everything direct to TradingView.

Sometimes I will post here only after a trade is already underway for a time.

But I do endeavour to share plenty of quality content.

Comment:
Yet again the Demand line proved to be critical resistance as I suggested it might be; back on April 24th.

And so a double shakeout has printed at the Demand line which appears to have completed a 3 wave correction.

Today the 13% dump most likely signals that the corrective area was a continuation pattern and now the dominant trend has reasserted to the downside.

There is always plenty of hypertension and broken hearts in revolving door club.

But it doesn't have to be that way.

This isn't a particularly complex method that I am showing you.

Anyone with application can learn it.

Its not like complex math(s) or anything.

Its just a few streamlined methods that I have amalgamated together.

All you have to do is leave the casino and get to work.

But just as with "The Ship Repair Man Story;" there are many "professionals" in this space that have no idea how the engine works.

The blind leading the blind.

Anyhow much more downside to come with bounces along the way.

Have a great weekend 😼.

Comment:
My recent WULF thread is linked below.

I'm not covering too much here on TradingView - just bits and pieces.
Comment:
Bitcoin up, MARA down and Nasdaq wobbling.

Nasdaq wobble is happening within the 0.618 retracement Golden Window.

Its not proof that Nasdaq will have another wave down.

But it is the most likely area that it will reverse if the uptrend is wave 2 of 3.

For the bullish case we want to see strength in this area.

Wobbling is dangerous.

Its not a great area to be printing upper wicks; showing sell pressure.

Anyhow, if MARA is down as Bitcoin is up while Nasdaq is flat...

What do you think might happen to MARA if Nasdaq has another wave down πŸ’€?

For now; nothing is determined for this area - we need to see a break to the downside in Nasdaq to get the clear signal that we're into a bearish third wave.

You are watching Nasdaq - right πŸ’­?

Comment:
Bitcoin is having a hard bounce and MARA looks like it may have bounce to print the right shoulder of a Head & Shoulders pattern.

If it does and it can get up the around the 0.786 @ $28 retracement ratio then I it could be a useful area to short.

The 0.786 is a key ratio because it tends to be the extremity that market makers will push beyond the 0.618 before whipping it back down.

The 0.618 is the magical ratio that is the reciprocal of Phi.

And the market makers know that every trader that has ever studied Fibonacci, know about this ratio.

So they try to disguise it by pushing to the 0.786 or even slightly beyond.

Having this awareness means that I can reduce risk significantly (and increase margin if I want to) and have a solid RR (risk/reward) ratio.

To be interested in the short I would ideally want to see an upper wicked candle showing selling pressure coming.

A candle similar to the one under the red arrow would be ideal.

It would be dangerous just to short based on ratio without some bearish candles to jump in behind.

We'll see - in the end my only real interest is to buy it deep whenever this area plays out.

But I may have a tickle on the short side if it gets to my entry target.

Comment:
For lower time frame traders this may be a reasonable buy in this area.

But I dont dabble in these areas.

There are so many charts and markets...

I prefer to look elsewhere for higher time frame setups.

And right now the rotation is into metals and bonds btw.

Those markets are breaking out while some of you are hoping the gravy train will continue here and not much is happening...
Comment:
Choppy ascent = bullish weakness.

I'm somewhat quiet on TView for now but you can find me pumping content every day in my Telegram Trading Group 🧐

Priority trades, round the clock updates and 4+ hours technical video per month😼.

$50 per month πŸ‘πŸ».

Contact: t.me/dRends35
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