No reason to panic yet, but there might be one if 461 doesn't hold.
This has the same setup that I've seen in any major decline following an upthrust/blow off top. Here are my expectations:
Bearish Scenario
- Gap down to 430-445 Tuesday morning (2/20)
- Dead cat bounce to test 456-462 for resistance (point rejection level = 461.53)
** IF rejected, then it opens the door for an explosive drop to at least 396-418.
Point target = 411 by 2/23/2024
~If the 396-418 range does not hold as support, it could crash to as low as 335 (downside targets if support breaks = 378, 362, 335)
* If this occurs it will bottom around 2/28-3/1 and present a buying opportunity.
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Bullish/Neutral scenarios (both less likely than the bearish scenario)
1) 461 holds as support: this would result MDB becoming range bound between 460-486 going into Earnings 3/7
2) 461 doesn't hold but it finds support at 428 (AB==CD), then it would test 461 for resistance. IF that does not hold as resistance then it will attempt a new high above 509 (likely would only make it to 486).
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Summary:
- not expecting crash but its possible
- looking to enter Mar 1 430 puts if we get gap down followed by rejection at or before 461, target 411
- this downside will be healthy for MDB mid-term, needs it to test 600s in the future
This has the same setup that I've seen in any major decline following an upthrust/blow off top. Here are my expectations:
Bearish Scenario
- Gap down to 430-445 Tuesday morning (2/20)
- Dead cat bounce to test 456-462 for resistance (point rejection level = 461.53)
** IF rejected, then it opens the door for an explosive drop to at least 396-418.
Point target = 411 by 2/23/2024
~If the 396-418 range does not hold as support, it could crash to as low as 335 (downside targets if support breaks = 378, 362, 335)
* If this occurs it will bottom around 2/28-3/1 and present a buying opportunity.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Bullish/Neutral scenarios (both less likely than the bearish scenario)
1) 461 holds as support: this would result MDB becoming range bound between 460-486 going into Earnings 3/7
2) 461 doesn't hold but it finds support at 428 (AB==CD), then it would test 461 for resistance. IF that does not hold as resistance then it will attempt a new high above 509 (likely would only make it to 486).
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Summary:
- not expecting crash but its possible
- looking to enter Mar 1 430 puts if we get gap down followed by rejection at or before 461, target 411
- this downside will be healthy for MDB mid-term, needs it to test 600s in the future
Comment:
Playing out as expected so far - need to see a bounce and rejection at or below 461 to enter puts.
Comment:
This will continue down to 415-428 before we see a bounce.
Comment:
Key levels to watch today:
427.05
418.37
416.91
427.05
418.37
416.91
Comment:
Looking for a rejection in the coming week around 447 minimum, potentially 461 for opportunity to short for next leg down.
Comment:
This is setting up for a squeeze. There is still some downside risk to around 430 (and potentially 395), but the bigger move is the upcoming upside. So not looking to short this currently, MDB is pretty correlated to SNOW price action, and SNOW has earnings today 2/28, so that could be a catalyst for a break one way or the other.
In order to become bullish I need to see the following:
- Break above 451 (in which case initial upside target will be 479 (likely a lot higher)
Or
- Big volume at 430 if it drops some more, and then 5 smaller degree waves up to confirm downside is complete.
This structure is re-accumulation setting up for the bigger move higher to attempt higher high (>509) and potentially test all time highs from back in 2021.
In order to become bullish I need to see the following:
- Break above 451 (in which case initial upside target will be 479 (likely a lot higher)
Or
- Big volume at 430 if it drops some more, and then 5 smaller degree waves up to confirm downside is complete.
This structure is re-accumulation setting up for the bigger move higher to attempt higher high (>509) and potentially test all time highs from back in 2021.
Comment:
Trading around 430 as expected. Looking to enter long once I get confirmation.
Trade closed: target reached:
When I posted this my downside targets in the event support broke were 378, 362, 335. MDB hit 362 today and has reached a position where it is over-extended to the downside and at the minimum ready for a technical bounce to 420. If it breaks above 420 it will signal the corrective wave is complete and its ready to rally to new highs in the coming months.
If you're short still this is a great time to cash out and swing long. Here is my updated idea for the swing.
If you're short still this is a great time to cash out and swing long. Here is my updated idea for the swing.
