5/23/24 - $med - GLP still gotta eat, interesting swing; spec!
5/23/24 -
MED
- hit my greedy "take a look" target today. so here i am *taking a look*.
let's be 100% clear - this company is facing some totally chit trends, comping down 50% growth and who know where the bottom is. i'm taking a small (and i mean small) swing here for a few reasons, however
1) macro tape seems to be driving risk away from the most spec/ "no need to own" names and this is a high beta reversal of that trend
2) the implied fcf yield even on super conservative estimates is like 22-25%. and why is that defensible?
3) the model they have setup adjusts with sales people. so they're still profitable even in this hyper low comp sales environment.
4) GLP stuff. hilarious. i'd not touch that poison but if you're fat and lazy - power to u chubster. anyway. fat ppl will still need to eat, and so this solution while defn dented by overlap in customer base, still is relevant.
5) will assess in real time on my books/ i think a good take profit is a retrace back toward $25. this is a HIGHLY shorted name, and for good reason, but any reversal in risk (look at the vix - still tame) will probably give us a nice pop here.
i play this spec stuff for hunting sake and keeping my skills short. small position, reiterate. super spec. careful. but take a look - interesting.
-V
MED
- hit my greedy "take a look" target today. so here i am *taking a look*. let's be 100% clear - this company is facing some totally chit trends, comping down 50% growth and who know where the bottom is. i'm taking a small (and i mean small) swing here for a few reasons, however
1) macro tape seems to be driving risk away from the most spec/ "no need to own" names and this is a high beta reversal of that trend
2) the implied fcf yield even on super conservative estimates is like 22-25%. and why is that defensible?
3) the model they have setup adjusts with sales people. so they're still profitable even in this hyper low comp sales environment.
4) GLP stuff. hilarious. i'd not touch that poison but if you're fat and lazy - power to u chubster. anyway. fat ppl will still need to eat, and so this solution while defn dented by overlap in customer base, still is relevant.
5) will assess in real time on my books/ i think a good take profit is a retrace back toward $25. this is a HIGHLY shorted name, and for good reason, but any reversal in risk (look at the vix - still tame) will probably give us a nice pop here.
i play this spec stuff for hunting sake and keeping my skills short. small position, reiterate. super spec. careful. but take a look - interesting.
-V