December 13 Market Update | Technical, Fundamental, News
Description:
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,720.00 extension, $3,715.00 all-time rally high, the micro-composite HVNode at $3,690.75, $3,667.75, and $3,630.00, as well as the $3,654.75 LVNode and poor structure near $3,625.00.
Technical:
After participants established an all-time rally high in Wednesday’s session, the S&P 500 liquidated in regular trading, down to the micro-composite high-volume node near $3,667.75, a valuable price level. Thereafter, participants accepted lower prices.
Given the mechanical trade (i.e., minimal excess at Friday’s lows) and poor structure (e.g., low-volume areas), it's very likely that the selling was the result of weak-handed, short-term buyers liquidating positions in panic.
Given that the higher-time frame breakout remains intact, participants must monitor whether buyers surface at the $3,654.75 low-volume node and extend range up to the high-volume node at $3,667.75. At that point, an initiative drive through that high-volume node -- the most positive outcome -- would portend a move to the $3,690.75 high-volume node, and then the prior all-time rally high.
Spending any considerable amount of time below Friday’s range puts the entire rally on hold.
Fundamental:
In a Bloomberg commentary, Larry Dwyer of HSBC was cited in a statement on his bank’s mildly bullish take on Treasuries, which puts the 10-year yield at 0.75% at the end of next year. bloom.bg/383YzcO
The Fed would have tightened only once in the past 22 years... or perhaps not at all. Under and AIT rule, the Fed should be dovish until inflation averages more than 2% for a period of years. In contrast, the consensus forecast implies the Fed is likely to be endorsing future tightening moves next year, or that the bond market will ignore the Fed.
Simply put, the notion that the Federal Reserve’s average inflation-targeting strategy will keep rates lower, for longer than expected, remains intact, drawing talk of inflationary expectations in the system. Still, the note comes ahead of the Fed’s upcoming meeting this week. It’s most likely that the market’s reaction to the event will be muted, absent a material change in policy (e.g., guidance on easing).
Key Events:
Tuesday: Industrial Production, Foreign Bond Investment, Overall Net Capital Flows.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference.
Thursday: Building Permits, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
Friday: CB Leading Index, Fed Brainard Speech, Fed Bank Stress Test Results 2nd Round.
Recent News:
EU’s deal with Britain unacceptable, prompting plans for stores to stockpile, bailouts. reut.rs/2LwfcGF reut.rs/3a69zt2 reut.rs/3aa7eNB
Despite risks and high CAPE ratios, stock-market valuations may not be that absurd. bit.ly/3qUMUpE
China finalizes assessment methodology for domestic, systemically important banks. bit.ly/3ndre5P
Bank for International Settlements issues warning about detachment of equity prices. bit.ly/3oQpVtF
The European Central Bank (ECB) has extended its pandemic bond buying program. bloom.bg/3qOHJHz
State Street Corp (NYSE: STT), UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS) in talks over merger. on.wsj.com/2Wb1haY
Unpacked: Coming war on the hidden algorithms that trap people in perpetual poverty. bit.ly/3qT9pv6
Trump signs bill averting government shutdown while fight on pandemic aid drags on. reut.rs/37XM2rl
U.S. producer prices rose moderately; COVID-19 is taming inflation in the near term. reut.rs/2K2vS89
Zurich and Farmers to buy MetLife Inc (NYSE: MET) motorhome insurance business. reut.rs/2IN7pmS
Technology firms could face fines of up to 6% of turnover if they don’t follow EU rules. reut.rs/37ft68B
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) to get $100M from Mudrick Capital. reut.rs/3qRcb3T
Hyundai Motor Company (OTC: HYMTF) agreed to buy stake in Boston Dynamics. reut.rs/2WcgBnT
Canada faces off COVID-19 contagion heading into Christmas, considers restrictions. reut.rs/37XqICp
The U.S. FDA has authorized Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use on Friday. reut.rs/2IH7A2S
A U.K. Court enables $18.5 billion class action against Mastercard Inc (NYSE: MA). reut.rs/37fsVdr
SPACs are increasingly becoming a thing, and a lot of unicorns are getting on board. bit.ly/37XGGfU
The U.S. sues Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) for monopolistic practices, gets a reply. bit.ly/349Gn0t
Equity and corporate debt rallies withstand record COVID-19 hospitalizations for now. bit.ly/347dLVk
Housing market and remodeling boom hasn’t cooled, a positive for the lumber prices. bit.ly/348ADUG
General Electric Company’s (NYSE: GE) debt reduction, commitment to de-risking. bit.ly/3n9eNYB
Stripe’s launch of Stripe Treasury, a commercial banking service, is bad for US banks. bit.ly/3qRWh9y
Deutsche Bank AG’s (NYSE: DB) franchise stability, cost cuts to buoy credit profiles. bit.ly/3qRWh9y
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) raising capital to firm up growing cash position, dent debt. bit.ly/3ne53MT
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 48.1% Bullish, 25.1% Neutral, 26.9% Bearish as of 12/09/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 4,490,477,859 as of 12/11/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 47.3% as of 12/11/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
An analysis for the week ahead.
Points of Interest:
$3,720.00 extension, $3,715.00 all-time rally high, the micro-composite HVNode at $3,690.75, $3,667.75, and $3,630.00, as well as the $3,654.75 LVNode and poor structure near $3,625.00.
Technical:
After participants established an all-time rally high in Wednesday’s session, the S&P 500 liquidated in regular trading, down to the micro-composite high-volume node near $3,667.75, a valuable price level. Thereafter, participants accepted lower prices.
Given the mechanical trade (i.e., minimal excess at Friday’s lows) and poor structure (e.g., low-volume areas), it's very likely that the selling was the result of weak-handed, short-term buyers liquidating positions in panic.
Given that the higher-time frame breakout remains intact, participants must monitor whether buyers surface at the $3,654.75 low-volume node and extend range up to the high-volume node at $3,667.75. At that point, an initiative drive through that high-volume node -- the most positive outcome -- would portend a move to the $3,690.75 high-volume node, and then the prior all-time rally high.
Spending any considerable amount of time below Friday’s range puts the entire rally on hold.
Fundamental:
In a Bloomberg commentary, Larry Dwyer of HSBC was cited in a statement on his bank’s mildly bullish take on Treasuries, which puts the 10-year yield at 0.75% at the end of next year. bloom.bg/383YzcO
The Fed would have tightened only once in the past 22 years... or perhaps not at all. Under and AIT rule, the Fed should be dovish until inflation averages more than 2% for a period of years. In contrast, the consensus forecast implies the Fed is likely to be endorsing future tightening moves next year, or that the bond market will ignore the Fed.
Simply put, the notion that the Federal Reserve’s average inflation-targeting strategy will keep rates lower, for longer than expected, remains intact, drawing talk of inflationary expectations in the system. Still, the note comes ahead of the Fed’s upcoming meeting this week. It’s most likely that the market’s reaction to the event will be muted, absent a material change in policy (e.g., guidance on easing).
Key Events:
Tuesday: Industrial Production, Foreign Bond Investment, Overall Net Capital Flows.
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Retail Sales, Markit Manufacturing PMI, Business Inventories, NAHB Housing Market Index, EIA Cushing Crude Oil Stocks Change, EIA Distillate Stocks Change, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed Interest Rate Decision, Fed Press Conference.
Thursday: Building Permits, Initial and Continuing Jobless Claims, Housing Starts, Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index.
Friday: CB Leading Index, Fed Brainard Speech, Fed Bank Stress Test Results 2nd Round.
Recent News:
EU’s deal with Britain unacceptable, prompting plans for stores to stockpile, bailouts. reut.rs/2LwfcGF reut.rs/3a69zt2 reut.rs/3aa7eNB
Despite risks and high CAPE ratios, stock-market valuations may not be that absurd. bit.ly/3qUMUpE
China finalizes assessment methodology for domestic, systemically important banks. bit.ly/3ndre5P
Bank for International Settlements issues warning about detachment of equity prices. bit.ly/3oQpVtF
The European Central Bank (ECB) has extended its pandemic bond buying program. bloom.bg/3qOHJHz
State Street Corp (NYSE: STT), UBS Group AG (NYSE: UBS) in talks over merger. on.wsj.com/2Wb1haY
Unpacked: Coming war on the hidden algorithms that trap people in perpetual poverty. bit.ly/3qT9pv6
Trump signs bill averting government shutdown while fight on pandemic aid drags on. reut.rs/37XM2rl
U.S. producer prices rose moderately; COVID-19 is taming inflation in the near term. reut.rs/2K2vS89
Zurich and Farmers to buy MetLife Inc (NYSE: MET) motorhome insurance business. reut.rs/2IN7pmS
Technology firms could face fines of up to 6% of turnover if they don’t follow EU rules. reut.rs/37ft68B
AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) to get $100M from Mudrick Capital. reut.rs/3qRcb3T
Hyundai Motor Company (OTC: HYMTF) agreed to buy stake in Boston Dynamics. reut.rs/2WcgBnT
Canada faces off COVID-19 contagion heading into Christmas, considers restrictions. reut.rs/37XqICp
The U.S. FDA has authorized Pfizer COVID-19 vaccine for emergency use on Friday. reut.rs/2IH7A2S
A U.K. Court enables $18.5 billion class action against Mastercard Inc (NYSE: MA). reut.rs/37fsVdr
SPACs are increasingly becoming a thing, and a lot of unicorns are getting on board. bit.ly/37XGGfU
The U.S. sues Facebook Inc (NASDAQ: FB) for monopolistic practices, gets a reply. bit.ly/349Gn0t
Equity and corporate debt rallies withstand record COVID-19 hospitalizations for now. bit.ly/347dLVk
Housing market and remodeling boom hasn’t cooled, a positive for the lumber prices. bit.ly/348ADUG
General Electric Company’s (NYSE: GE) debt reduction, commitment to de-risking. bit.ly/3n9eNYB
Stripe’s launch of Stripe Treasury, a commercial banking service, is bad for US banks. bit.ly/3qRWh9y
Deutsche Bank AG’s (NYSE: DB) franchise stability, cost cuts to buoy credit profiles. bit.ly/3qRWh9y
Tesla Inc (NASDAQ: TSLA) raising capital to firm up growing cash position, dent debt. bit.ly/3ne53MT
Key Metrics:
Sentiment: 48.1% Bullish, 25.1% Neutral, 26.9% Bearish as of 12/09/2020. bit.ly/330VhEp
Gamma Exposure: (Trending Neutral) 4,490,477,859 as of 12/11/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Dark Pool Index: (Trending Higher) 47.3% as of 12/11/2020. bit.ly/2UpgtRE
Disclaimer:
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve, especially me.
In no way should this post be construed as investment advice.
This is a page where I look to share knowledge and keep track of trades. If questions, concerns, or suggestions, feel free to comment. I think everyone can improve (myself especially), so if you see something wrong, speak up.
