Breakout Or Fakeout?

The S&P 500 futures are trying to get above the top of their range at 3804. The last hourly candle closed above it and we're seeing relative strength from the Russell 2000, Nikkei 225, and other indices here in the US and around the globe. Testing the waters here if I can get an entry at 3805 and look for upside towards 3855 over the coming hours/days. My stop is below that hourly candle's low, which also corresponds with the VWAP for the session at 3795. Reward/risk is 5:1 and sizing this risk at roughly .30% of the portfolio...so relatively small given two straight days of trading losses.

Comment:

That volatility spike got me long the one contract at 3805. Now that we're seeing some upside follow-through, I've moved the stop to break-even. No reason for this to go green to red. If we're going to see upside follow-through then this is the start of it. If it fails, then I do not want to be involved any further.

Comment:

Market failing at 3814. Protecting profits and will revisit the broader thesis later. Out at 3810.75 for a profit of ~ $27.50.

Comment:

Likely done for the session --- back around 6 to see if anything develops overnight. Ultimately looking for this trend to move higher, but it's not quite ready yet.