Threw together some drawings on the MGK chart, but the same pattern can be seen on
SPY
VTI
or other big indexes. I feel like the failure of NVDA to push higher on a very positive earnings report is sort of the canary in the coal mine here. Everyone knows about the inverted yield curve and how attractive interest rates are. Why Gamble on stocks at these valuations when you can earn nearly 5.5% on 1yr t-bills and 4.45% on 5yr Gov't Bonds?
The green lines are not necessarily predictions, but rather lines connecting the current price to the expiry of the next 4 major option dates:
Expiry Days to Expiry
9/15/2023 21
10/23/2023 59
1/19/2024 147
4/19/2024 238
Plan to layer in a few hedges & speculative bets on the way down, but just marking out my base-case which, let's be honest, is probably to the 4/19/24 date, however the Sep/Oct timeframe is interesting in the context of how major indexes perform during those months (historically speaking).
SPY
VTI
or other big indexes. I feel like the failure of NVDA to push higher on a very positive earnings report is sort of the canary in the coal mine here. Everyone knows about the inverted yield curve and how attractive interest rates are. Why Gamble on stocks at these valuations when you can earn nearly 5.5% on 1yr t-bills and 4.45% on 5yr Gov't Bonds? The green lines are not necessarily predictions, but rather lines connecting the current price to the expiry of the next 4 major option dates:
Expiry Days to Expiry
9/15/2023 21
10/23/2023 59
1/19/2024 147
4/19/2024 238
Plan to layer in a few hedges & speculative bets on the way down, but just marking out my base-case which, let's be honest, is probably to the 4/19/24 date, however the Sep/Oct timeframe is interesting in the context of how major indexes perform during those months (historically speaking).