$MIB Sees Limited Upside To 25013 Before Geo Completion | #euro


A confluence of technical hurdles is likely limiting any immediate upside potential in the Italian MIB Index             , based on the following set of observations:

1 - ELLIOTT WAVE + GEO: In the most recent past (12-19 OCT 20009), price rallied to complete Elliott Wave's 4th wave, completing its corrective swing at 24558.00. This became a spring board from which bears plunged to 12296.00 on week of 23 JULY 2012 - This nadir defined the completion of a full bearish Elliott Wave impulsive swing at its 5th wave, as well as plotted the Geo's Point-2. As price rallied correctively from that level, it crunched the most recent price action into a narrow range from which to spring into that prior 24558.00 support-turned-resistance level.

2 - RECIPROCAL AB = CD SYMMETRY: As price unfolds into a correction, internal analysis of recent price action at this weekly scale reveals that a geometric             projection could carry price to or slightly above the vicinity of the historical structural 24558.00 level. This geometry does not occur over the entire length of the recent corrective upswing, but structural analysis of lows vs. highs allow for a fair projection via an internal ab = cd pattern.

3 - PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: As a stand-alone method, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has defined a high-probability resistance level defined as:

- TG-Hi = 25013.54 - 12 AUG 2015

This represents a qualitative target which is most able to impose a reversal event. In the context of above technical events, this adds credence to the probability of resistance and retracement as mentioned, with the 1-5' Line acting as an additional back-stop to a probable rallying into these targets.


Technical analysis combined with predictive/forecasting model favor a limited upside potential to a narrow 24558.00/25013.54 range. A background Geo             adds further weight through its geometry, raising the expectation of a retracement to a price level (18031.76 to 17555.77), corresponding to Point-4, as set by the Geo's Off-Set Rule.


David Alcindor
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA


David Alcindor

Comment: 08 JUL 2016 - Chart Update:

Whereas the entire geometry completed its full cycle (i.e.: a five point completion, followed by price validating the 1-4 Line), it did NOT allow price to hit the TG-Hi target in this process:

At this time, the original bullish tack is challenged as price carved lower lows. Expect a probable support at the 14347/13644 range before price resumes the path described by the original forecast.

Invalidation of this bullish forecast would occur at the if price were to break a new historical low.


David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
Comment: UPDATE - $MIB - 17 SEP 2017:

Price continues to move along Risk Line since hitting 1-4 Line. Forecast remains intact and in force:


David Alcindor
David Alcindor
Alias: 4xForecaster

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what is a nodule ? And what is a geo ?
@unelma, these are concepts that I teach outside of TV. I have posted 2 lessons on high-probability trading. The third lesson coming up soon will cover the Geo. TV will not allow me to post publicly where I provide my service, so feel free to contact me by PM.

Any update on this one?
+1 Reply
Hello, @2use - All updates, requests and trading notes are now part of the #CROWSignalService (See this hashtag on Twitter).

Thank you,

David Alcindor
2use 4xForecaster
@4xForecaster, Does that mean that charts won't be updated here?
+1 Reply

Forecast, details, updates and smaller timeframes are kept within the CROW Signal Service. Results of target hits would be posted publicly - This applies to all Forex, Bitcoin, stocks, ETFs, indices and commodities.

If and once TradingView comes up with a supportive environment where I can bring all of this service on this site, I will then consolidate all of my social online services into this one. Until then, I have to stay with the alternatives that remain simplest to all of my students and clients.


David Alcindor
HI David

first part of forecat was perfect

but the level of a retracement did'nt hit

just for confidence , the long term forecast is still valid?
+1 Reply
Hello @Serse, thank you for this update request. Just posted a technical update in the thread above.


David Alcindor
Serse 4xForecaster
appreciate tanks
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