A confluence of technical hurdles is likely limiting any immediate upside potential in the Italian MIB Index , based on the following set of observations:
1 - + GEO: In the most recent past (12-19 OCT 20009), price rallied to complete Wave's 4th wave, completing its corrective swing at 24558.00. This became a spring board from which bears plunged to 12296.00 on week of 23 JULY 2012 - This nadir defined the completion of a full impulsive swing at its 5th wave, as well as plotted the Geo's Point-2. As price rallied correctively from that level, it crunched the most recent price action into a narrow range from which to spring into that prior 24558.00 support-turned-resistance level.
2 - RECIPROCAL AB = CD SYMMETRY: As price unfolds into a correction, internal analysis of recent price action at this weekly scale reveals that a geometric projection could carry price to or slightly above the vicinity of the historical structural 24558.00 level. This geometry does not occur over the entire length of the recent corrective upswing, but structural analysis of lows vs. highs allow for a fair projection via an internal ab = cd pattern.
3 - PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL: As a stand-alone method, the Predictive/Forecasting Model has defined a high-probability defined as:
- TG-Hi = 25013.54 - 12 AUG 2015
This represents a qualitative target which is most able to impose a reversal event. In the context of above technical events, this adds credence to the probability of resistance and retracement as mentioned, with the 1-5' Line acting as an additional back-stop to a probable rallying into these targets.
combined with predictive/forecasting model favor a limited upside potential to a narrow 24558.00/25013.54 range. A background Geo adds further weight through its geometry, raising the expectation of a retracement to a price level (18031.76 to 17555.77), corresponding to Point-4, as set by the Geo's Off-Set Rule.
Predictive Analysis & Forecasting
Durango, Colorado - USA
Whereas the entire geometry completed its full cycle (i.e.: a five point completion, followed by price validating the 1-4 Line), it did NOT allow price to hit the TG-Hi target in this process:
At this time, the original bullish tack is challenged as price carved lower lows. Expect a probable support at the 14347/13644 range before price resumes the path described by the original forecast.
Invalidation of this bullish forecast would occur at the if price were to break a new historical low.
David Alcindor, CMT Affiliate
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