kylesutherlandsmith45

Predicting a short term increase in bond market volatility

Long
TVC:MOVE   ICE BofAML U.S. Bond Market Option Volatility Estimate Index
I found this cup and handle pattern on the move index RSI by accident. I'm just curious to see if it plays out. I don't know if it makes any sense and probably someone will say it's a waste of time. Maybe, maybe not. If price is what you should follow and if the why and the wherefore don't matter and it's the ticket or the tape that is important as Livermore said then it might be valid. What I'm looking for is a spike down to roughly 35.4 on RSI. Then an increase to 42, then 50, then 58, then 69, then 72. Using the cup and handle measurements would say that we are already at the lows now. This being half the distance from the top of the cup to the bottom for the handle. The full measured move is somewhat difficult to imagine. Just over 110 on RSI maybe. I'm not even sure if that's technically possible. I'm just going to play the handle. If the rest happens we will probably be busy saving our selves rather than trying to play the markets.

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