lauralea

Rectangle Top

Short
NYSE:MS   Morgan Stanley
Very long impulse wave with a bottom of 27.20 and a top of 109.73. MS reached it's high and looks it like price bounced around in a rectangle top for a while before breaking the bottom trend line which is now resistance. The bottom trendline of the rectangle top appears to have become the resistance line of yet another rectangle which has broken to the downside.

Price hit the yearly low earlier today at 76.89 and that is close to the .382 fib level of the impulse wave up (approximately 38% pull back of the wave up). The 2 year low is 35.53. 3 year low is 27.20.

There are a bunch of buyers in this impressive and steep rise up which is better viewed on weekly. (below)
Buyers often become sellers, eventually.

Short interest is lower than I expected at 1.46%.
Fundamentals look good. Dividend is 3.55% which is a substantial yield but comes with a high payout ratio of over 96%. The payout ratio shows the proportion of earnings a company pays its shareholders in the form of dividends, expressed as a percentage of the company's total earnings. In a perfect world, I would rather see a much lower payout ratio so that I feel the dividend is sustainable.

It seems there is no telling what the market will do hour to hour, much less day to day. I guess if one feels the market is finished pulling back, this could be a long. If one feels the market massacre is not over yet, then some would consider going short. Or some may sit on the side lines in cash like I am for the most part and watch the market. This could be my first true bear market and I am just trying to learn as much as I can. (o:

No recommendation

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